Church Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 88.09

CHD
 Stock
  

USD 88.09  0.70  0.80%   

Church Dwight's future price is the expected price of Church Dwight instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Church Dwight performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 30.41, whereas Price to Book Value is forecasted to decline to 7.27.
  
Church Dwight's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Church Dwight. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Church Dwight based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Church Dwight over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 CALL at $90.0 is a CALL option contract on Church Dwight's common stock with a strick price of 90.0 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-09 at 15:58:15 for $0.27 and, as of today, has 9 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.2, and an ask price of $0.3. The implied volatility as of the 10th of August is 19.0792. View All Church options

Closest to current price Church long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Church Dwight Backtesting, Church Dwight Valuation, Church Dwight Correlation, Church Dwight Hype Analysis, Church Dwight Volatility, Church Dwight History as well as Church Dwight Performance. Please specify Church Dwight time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Church Dwight odds to be computed.

Church Dwight Target Price Odds to finish over 88.09

The tendency of Church Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 88.09 90 days 88.09 
about 76.12
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Church Dwight to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 76.12 (This Church Dwight probability density function shows the probability of Church Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Church Dwight has a beta of 0.44 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Church Dwight average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Church Dwight will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Church Dwight is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Church Dwight Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Church Dwight

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Church Dwight. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Church Dwight's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Church Dwight in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
86.0287.8989.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
79.1792.2894.15
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
85.7187.5889.46
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
80.0095.56116.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Church Dwight. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Church Dwight's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Church Dwight's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Church Dwight.

Church Dwight Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Church Dwight is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Church Dwight's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Church Dwight, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Church Dwight within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.11
β
Beta against DOW0.44
σ
Overall volatility
4.38
Ir
Information ratio -0.05

Church Dwight Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Church Dwight for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Church Dwight can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Church Dwight generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Church Dwight is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Church Dwight has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: Texas Permanent School Fund Cuts Stock Position in Church Dwight Co., Inc. - Defense World

Church Dwight Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Church Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Church Dwight's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Church Dwight's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.71%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.00
Short Percent Of Float1.94%
Float Shares242.3M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.6M
Shares Short Prior Month4.5M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.47M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.14%

Church Dwight Technical Analysis

Church Dwight's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Church Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Church Dwight. In general, you should focus on analyzing Church Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Church Dwight Predictive Forecast Models

Church Dwight time-series forecasting models is one of many Church Dwight's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Church Dwight's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Church Dwight

Checking the ongoing alerts about Church Dwight for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Church Dwight help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Church Dwight Alerts

Church Dwight Alerts and Suggestions

Church Dwight generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Church Dwight is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Church Dwight has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: Texas Permanent School Fund Cuts Stock Position in Church Dwight Co., Inc. - Defense World
Continue to Church Dwight Backtesting, Church Dwight Valuation, Church Dwight Correlation, Church Dwight Hype Analysis, Church Dwight Volatility, Church Dwight History as well as Church Dwight Performance. Note that the Church Dwight information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Church Dwight's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

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When running Church Dwight price analysis, check to measure Church Dwight's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Church Dwight is operating at the current time. Most of Church Dwight's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Church Dwight's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Church Dwight's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Church Dwight to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Church Dwight's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Church Dwight. If investors know Church will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Church Dwight listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.13
Market Capitalization
21.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.042
Return On Assets
0.0774
Return On Equity
0.23
The market value of Church Dwight is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Church that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Church Dwight's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Church Dwight's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Church Dwight's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Church Dwight's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Church Dwight's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Church Dwight value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Church Dwight's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.