Chembio Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 0.86

CEMI
 Stock
  

USD 0.86  0.01  1.18%   

Chembio Diagnostics' future price is the expected price of Chembio Diagnostics instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Chembio Diagnostics performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Chembio Diagnostics Price to Book Value is most likely to increase slightly in the upcoming years. The preceding year's Price to Book Value was reported at 1.00. The current Price to Sales Ratio is estimated to increase to 0.59, while Price to Earnings Ratio are projected to decrease to (0.83) .
  
Chembio Diagnostics' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Chembio Diagnostics. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Chembio Diagnostics based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Chembio Diagnostics over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 PUT at $2.5 is a PUT option contract on Chembio Diagnostics' common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-04 at 11:46:10 for $1.6 and, as of today, has 7 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.05, and an ask price of $1.8. The implied volatility as of the 12th of August 2022 is 798.2319. View All Chembio options

Closest to current price Chembio long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Chembio Diagnostics Backtesting, Chembio Diagnostics Valuation, Chembio Diagnostics Correlation, Chembio Diagnostics Hype Analysis, Chembio Diagnostics Volatility, Chembio Diagnostics History as well as Chembio Diagnostics Performance. Please specify Chembio Diagnostics time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Chembio Diagnostics odds to be computed.

Chembio Diagnostics Target Price Odds to finish over 0.86

The tendency of Chembio Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 0.86 90 days 0.86 
about 12.43
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chembio Diagnostics to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 12.43 (This Chembio Diagnostics probability density function shows the probability of Chembio Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Chembio Diagnostics has a beta of -0.66 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Chembio Diagnostics are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Chembio Diagnostics is likely to outperform the market. Moreover The company has an alpha of 1.082, implying that it can generate a 1.08 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Chembio Diagnostics Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Chembio Diagnostics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chembio Diagnostics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chembio Diagnostics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Chembio Diagnostics in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.040.838.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.040.718.48
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.0197850.998.76
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.04-1.04-1.04
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chembio Diagnostics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chembio Diagnostics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chembio Diagnostics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Chembio Diagnostics.

Chembio Diagnostics Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chembio Diagnostics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chembio Diagnostics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Chembio Diagnostics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chembio Diagnostics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
1.08
β
Beta against DOW-0.66
σ
Overall volatility
0.13
Ir
Information ratio 0.12

Chembio Diagnostics Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chembio Diagnostics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chembio Diagnostics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Chembio Diagnostics is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Chembio Diagnostics has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Chembio Diagnostics appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Chembio Diagnostics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 57.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (38.19 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 12.83 M.
Chembio Diagnostics currently holds about 24.4 M in cash with (27.99 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.81.
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: StockNews.com Begins Coverage on Chembio Diagnostics - Defense World

Chembio Diagnostics Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chembio Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chembio Diagnostics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chembio Diagnostics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.95%
Short Percent Of Float5.02%
Float Shares28.45M
Shares Short Prior Month1.69M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.03M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month785.71k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Chembio Diagnostics Technical Analysis

Chembio Diagnostics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chembio Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chembio Diagnostics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chembio Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Chembio Diagnostics Predictive Forecast Models

Chembio Diagnostics time-series forecasting models is one of many Chembio Diagnostics' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Chembio Diagnostics' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Chembio Diagnostics

Checking the ongoing alerts about Chembio Diagnostics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chembio Diagnostics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Chembio Diagnostics Alerts

Chembio Diagnostics Alerts and Suggestions

Chembio Diagnostics is way too risky over 90 days horizon
Chembio Diagnostics has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Chembio Diagnostics appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Chembio Diagnostics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 57.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (38.19 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 12.83 M.
Chembio Diagnostics currently holds about 24.4 M in cash with (27.99 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.81.
Latest headline from www.defenseworld.net: StockNews.com Begins Coverage on Chembio Diagnostics - Defense World
Continue to Chembio Diagnostics Backtesting, Chembio Diagnostics Valuation, Chembio Diagnostics Correlation, Chembio Diagnostics Hype Analysis, Chembio Diagnostics Volatility, Chembio Diagnostics History as well as Chembio Diagnostics Performance. Note that the Chembio Diagnostics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Chembio Diagnostics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

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When running Chembio Diagnostics price analysis, check to measure Chembio Diagnostics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chembio Diagnostics is operating at the current time. Most of Chembio Diagnostics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chembio Diagnostics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chembio Diagnostics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chembio Diagnostics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Chembio Diagnostics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chembio Diagnostics. If investors know Chembio will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chembio Diagnostics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
25.7 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.42
Return On Assets
-0.3
Return On Equity
-2.06
The market value of Chembio Diagnostics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chembio that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chembio Diagnostics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chembio Diagnostics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chembio Diagnostics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chembio Diagnostics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chembio Diagnostics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Chembio Diagnostics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chembio Diagnostics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.