Carver Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 4.19

CARV
 Stock
  

USD 4.19  0.13  3.20%   

Carver Bancorp's future price is the expected price of Carver Bancorp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Carver Bancorp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Continue to Carver Bancorp Backtesting, Carver Bancorp Valuation, Carver Bancorp Correlation, Carver Bancorp Hype Analysis, Carver Bancorp Volatility, Carver Bancorp History as well as Carver Bancorp Performance. Please specify Carver Bancorp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Carver Bancorp odds to be computed.

Carver Bancorp Target Price Odds to finish over 4.19

The tendency of Carver Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 4.19 90 days 4.19 
about 63.06
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carver Bancorp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 63.06 (This Carver Bancorp probability density function shows the probability of Carver Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Carver Bancorp has a beta of 0.98 suggesting Carver Bancorp market returns are correlated to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Carver Bancorp is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Carver Bancorp is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Carver Bancorp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Carver Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carver Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carver Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Carver Bancorp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.704.197.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.073.567.05
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
1.034.538.02
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
3.824.114.40
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Carver Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Carver Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Carver Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Carver Bancorp.

Carver Bancorp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carver Bancorp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carver Bancorp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carver Bancorp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carver Bancorp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.27
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.98
σ
Overall volatility
0.45
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Carver Bancorp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carver Bancorp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carver Bancorp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carver Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Carver Bancorp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 27.82 M. Net Loss for the year was (847 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 27.22 M.

Carver Bancorp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carver Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carver Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carver Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding3415154.00
Cash And Short Term Investments128614000.00

Carver Bancorp Technical Analysis

Carver Bancorp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Carver Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carver Bancorp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Carver Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Carver Bancorp Predictive Forecast Models

Carver Bancorp time-series forecasting models is one of many Carver Bancorp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Carver Bancorp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Carver Bancorp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Carver Bancorp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Carver Bancorp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carver Bancorp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Carver Bancorp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 27.82 M. Net Loss for the year was (847 K) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 27.22 M.
Continue to Carver Bancorp Backtesting, Carver Bancorp Valuation, Carver Bancorp Correlation, Carver Bancorp Hype Analysis, Carver Bancorp Volatility, Carver Bancorp History as well as Carver Bancorp Performance. You can also try My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Carver Bancorp price analysis, check to measure Carver Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carver Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Carver Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carver Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carver Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carver Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Carver Bancorp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carver Bancorp. If investors know Carver will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carver Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
17.7 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.16) 
Return On Assets
(0.0014) 
Return On Equity
(0.0193) 
The market value of Carver Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carver that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carver Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carver Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carver Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carver Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carver Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Carver Bancorp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carver Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.