Cardinal Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 53.94

CAH
 Stock
  

USD 52.64  0.39  0.75%   

Cardinal Health's future price is the expected price of Cardinal Health instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Cardinal Health performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Cardinal Health Price to Book Value is most likely to increase in the upcoming years. The preceding year's Price to Book Value was reported at 10.64. The current Price to Sales Ratio is estimated to increase to 0.12, while Price to Earnings Ratio are projected to decrease to 22.82.
  
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Cardinal Health's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Cardinal Health. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Cardinal Health based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Cardinal Health over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-08 CALL at $52.5 is a CALL option contract on Cardinal Health's common stock with a strick price of 52.5 expiring on 2022-07-08. The contract was last traded on 2022-07-05 at 12:35:02 for $0.31 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.4, and an ask price of $0.55. The implied volatility as of the 6th of July is 31.4227. View All Cardinal options

Closest to current price Cardinal long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Cardinal Health Backtesting, Cardinal Health Valuation, Cardinal Health Correlation, Cardinal Health Hype Analysis, Cardinal Health Volatility, Cardinal Health History as well as Cardinal Health Performance. Please specify Cardinal Health time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Cardinal Health odds to be computed.
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Cardinal Health Target Price Odds to finish below 53.94

The tendency of Cardinal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 53.94  after 90 days
 52.64 90 days 53.94  about 25.96
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Cardinal Health to stay under $ 53.94  after 90 days from now is about 25.96 (This Cardinal Health probability density function shows the probability of Cardinal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Cardinal Health price to stay between its current price of $ 52.64  and $ 53.94  at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.4 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Cardinal Health has a beta of 0.72 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Cardinal Health average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Cardinal Health will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0245, implying that it can generate a 0.0245 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Cardinal Health Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Cardinal Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cardinal Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cardinal Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Cardinal Health in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
50.2951.9853.67
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
47.2155.9657.65
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
48.0057.5064.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
5.225.555.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cardinal Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cardinal Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cardinal Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Cardinal Health.

Cardinal Health Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Cardinal Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Cardinal Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Cardinal Health, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Cardinal Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.024544
β
Beta against DOW0.72
σ
Overall volatility
3.55
Ir
Information ratio 0.04566

Cardinal Health Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Cardinal Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Cardinal Health can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Cardinal Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Payment of 9523 shares by Michael Kaufmann of Cardinal Health subject to Rule 16b-3

Cardinal Health Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Cardinal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Cardinal Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cardinal Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.72%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.95
Short Percent Of Float3.14%
Float Shares276.3M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.48M
Shares Short Prior Month5.72M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.6M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.74%

Cardinal Health Technical Analysis

Cardinal Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Cardinal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cardinal Health. In general, you should focus on analyzing Cardinal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Cardinal Health Predictive Forecast Models

Cardinal Health time-series forecasting models is one of many Cardinal Health's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Cardinal Health's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Cardinal Health

Checking the ongoing alerts about Cardinal Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Cardinal Health help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Cardinal Health Alerts

Cardinal Health Alerts and Suggestions

Cardinal Health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Payment of 9523 shares by Michael Kaufmann of Cardinal Health subject to Rule 16b-3
Continue to Cardinal Health Backtesting, Cardinal Health Valuation, Cardinal Health Correlation, Cardinal Health Hype Analysis, Cardinal Health Volatility, Cardinal Health History as well as Cardinal Health Performance. Note that the Cardinal Health information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Cardinal Health's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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Is Cardinal Health's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Cardinal Health. If investors know Cardinal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Cardinal Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.92
Market Capitalization
14.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.14
Return On Assets
0.0253
Return On Equity
-1.73
The market value of Cardinal Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Cardinal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Cardinal Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Cardinal Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Cardinal Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Cardinal Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cardinal Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Cardinal Health value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cardinal Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.