Conagra Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 35.24

CAG
 Stock
  

USD 35.24  0.34  0.97%   

Conagra Brands' future price is the expected price of Conagra Brands instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Conagra Brands performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 2.08. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 20.08.
  
Conagra Brands' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Conagra Brands. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Conagra Brands based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Conagra Brands over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-19 CALL at $35.0 is a CALL option contract on Conagra Brands' common stock with a strick price of 35.0 expiring on 2022-08-19. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-16 at 15:16:20 for $0.4 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.35, and an ask price of $0.45. The implied volatility as of the 17th of August 2022 is 20.8771. View All Conagra options

Closest to current price Conagra long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Conagra Brands Backtesting, Conagra Brands Valuation, Conagra Brands Correlation, Conagra Brands Hype Analysis, Conagra Brands Volatility, Conagra Brands History as well as Conagra Brands Performance. Please specify Conagra Brands time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Conagra Brands odds to be computed.

Conagra Brands Target Price Odds to finish over 35.24

The tendency of Conagra Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 35.24 90 days 35.24 
about 6.58
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Conagra Brands to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 6.58 (This Conagra Brands probability density function shows the probability of Conagra Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Conagra Brands has a beta of 0.76 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Conagra Brands average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Conagra Brands will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Conagra Brands is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Conagra Brands Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Conagra Brands

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Conagra Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Conagra Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Conagra Brands in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
33.8335.2736.71
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
34.4035.8437.28
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
34.8836.3237.77
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
35.0037.4342.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Conagra Brands. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Conagra Brands' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Conagra Brands' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Conagra Brands.

Conagra Brands Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Conagra Brands is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Conagra Brands' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Conagra Brands, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Conagra Brands within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.08
β
Beta against DOW0.76
σ
Overall volatility
1.24
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Conagra Brands Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Conagra Brands for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Conagra Brands can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Conagra Brands was previously known as CONAGRA BRANDS INC and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol CAG.
The company has 9.22 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.04, which is OK given its current industry classification. Conagra Brands has a current ratio of 0.84, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Conagra Brands until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Conagra Brands' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Conagra Brands sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Conagra to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Conagra Brands' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Conagra Brands has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 84.0% of Conagra Brands shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Is Conagra Brands, Inc.s Latest Stock Performance Being Led By Its Strong Fundamentals - Simply Wall St

Conagra Brands Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Conagra Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Conagra Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Conagra Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date2nd of August 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out2.13%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.25
Short Percent Of Float2.88%
Float Shares477.68M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.79M
Shares Short Prior Month12.8M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.11M
Date Short Interest29th of July 2022

Conagra Brands Technical Analysis

Conagra Brands' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Conagra Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Conagra Brands. In general, you should focus on analyzing Conagra Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Conagra Brands Predictive Forecast Models

Conagra Brands time-series forecasting models is one of many Conagra Brands' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Conagra Brands' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Conagra Brands

Checking the ongoing alerts about Conagra Brands for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Conagra Brands help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Conagra Brands Alerts

Conagra Brands Alerts and Suggestions

Conagra Brands was previously known as CONAGRA BRANDS INC and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol CAG.
The company has 9.22 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 1.04, which is OK given its current industry classification. Conagra Brands has a current ratio of 0.84, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Conagra Brands until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Conagra Brands' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Conagra Brands sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Conagra to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Conagra Brands' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Conagra Brands has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 84.0% of Conagra Brands shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Is Conagra Brands, Inc.s Latest Stock Performance Being Led By Its Strong Fundamentals - Simply Wall St
Continue to Conagra Brands Backtesting, Conagra Brands Valuation, Conagra Brands Correlation, Conagra Brands Hype Analysis, Conagra Brands Volatility, Conagra Brands History as well as Conagra Brands Performance. Note that the Conagra Brands information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Conagra Brands' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.

Complementary Tools for Conagra Stock analysis

When running Conagra Brands price analysis, check to measure Conagra Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Conagra Brands is operating at the current time. Most of Conagra Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Conagra Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Conagra Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Conagra Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Conagra Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Conagra Brands. If investors know Conagra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Conagra Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.48
Market Capitalization
16.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.062
Return On Assets
0.0484
Return On Equity
0.1
The market value of Conagra Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Conagra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Conagra Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Conagra Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Conagra Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Conagra Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Conagra Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Conagra Brands value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Conagra Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.