Boqii Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.82

BQ -  USA Stock  

USD 0.28  0.01  3.45%

Boqii Holding's future price is the expected price of Boqii Holding instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Boqii Holding performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 21st of May 2022, Price to Book Value is likely to drop to 35.94. In addition to that, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to drop to -36.71.
  
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Boqii Holding's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Boqii Holding. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Boqii Holding based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Boqii Holding over a specific time period. For example, 2022-06-17 PUT at $2.5 is a PUT option contract on Boqii Holding's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2022-06-17. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 27 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.25, and an ask price of $3.2. The implied volatility as of the 21st of May is 332.9077. View All Boqii options

Closest to current price Boqii long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Boqii Holding Backtesting, Boqii Holding Valuation, Boqii Holding Correlation, Boqii Holding Hype Analysis, Boqii Holding Volatility, Boqii Holding History as well as Boqii Holding Performance. Please specify Boqii Holding time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Boqii Holding odds to be computed.
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Boqii Holding Target Price Odds to finish below 0.82

The tendency of Boqii Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 0.82  after 90 days
 0.28 90 days 0.82  close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Boqii Holding to stay under $ 0.82  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Boqii Holding probability density function shows the probability of Boqii Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Boqii Holding price to stay between its current price of $ 0.28  and $ 0.82  at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.8 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.76 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Boqii Holding will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Boqii Holding is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Boqii Holding Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Boqii Holding

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Boqii Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Boqii Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Boqii Holding in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.010.276.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.050.967.26
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.0057520.296.59
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
3.003.003.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Boqii Holding. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Boqii Holding's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Boqii Holding's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Boqii Holding.

Boqii Holding Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Boqii Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Boqii Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Boqii Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Boqii Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.9
β
Beta against DOW1.76
σ
Overall volatility
0.12
Ir
Information ratio -0.17

Boqii Holding Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Boqii Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Boqii Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Boqii Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Boqii Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Boqii Holding has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Boqii Holding has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company generated the yearly revenue of 1.17 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (147.16 M) with gross profit of 187.3 M.

Boqii Holding Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Boqii Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Boqii Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Boqii Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.81%
Float Shares46.28M
Shares Short Prior Month173.49k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day181.74k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month302.56k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Boqii Holding Technical Analysis

Boqii Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Boqii Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Boqii Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Boqii Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Boqii Holding Predictive Forecast Models

Boqii Holding time-series forecasting models is one of many Boqii Holding's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Boqii Holding's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Boqii Holding

Checking the ongoing alerts about Boqii Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Boqii Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Boqii Holding Alerts

Boqii Holding Alerts and Suggestions

Boqii Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Boqii Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Boqii Holding has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock
Boqii Holding has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company generated the yearly revenue of 1.17 B. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (147.16 M) with gross profit of 187.3 M.
Continue to Boqii Holding Backtesting, Boqii Holding Valuation, Boqii Holding Correlation, Boqii Holding Hype Analysis, Boqii Holding Volatility, Boqii Holding History as well as Boqii Holding Performance. Note that the Boqii Holding information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Boqii Holding's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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When running Boqii Holding price analysis, check to measure Boqii Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Boqii Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Boqii Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Boqii Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Boqii Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Boqii Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Boqii Holding's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Boqii Holding. If investors know Boqii will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Boqii Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Boqii Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Boqii that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Boqii Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Boqii Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Boqii Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Boqii Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Boqii Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Boqii Holding value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Boqii Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.