Vanguard Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 72.38

BLV
 Etf
  

USD 76.03  0.60  0.78%   

Vanguard Long-Term's future price is the expected price of Vanguard Long-Term instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Vanguard Long-Term Bond performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Continue to Vanguard Long-Term Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Long-Term Correlation, Vanguard Long-Term Hype Analysis, Vanguard Long-Term Volatility, Vanguard Long-Term History as well as Vanguard Long-Term Performance. Please specify Vanguard Long-Term time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Vanguard Long-Term odds to be computed.

Vanguard Long-Term Target Price Odds to finish below 72.38

The tendency of Vanguard Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 72.38  or more in 90 days
 76.03 90 days 72.38 
about 56.16
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Long-Term to drop to $ 72.38  or more in 90 days from now is about 56.16 (This Vanguard Long-Term Bond probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vanguard Long-Term Bond price to stay between $ 72.38  and its current price of $76.03 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.41 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Vanguard Long-Term has a beta of 0.44 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Vanguard Long-Term average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Vanguard Long-Term Bond will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Vanguard Long-Term Bond is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Vanguard Long-Term Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Vanguard Long-Term

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Long-Term Bond. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Long-Term's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Vanguard Long-Term in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
74.8376.0377.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
74.4575.6576.85
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
75.0776.2777.46
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
65.6270.9276.22
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vanguard Long-Term. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vanguard Long-Term's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vanguard Long-Term's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Vanguard Long-Term Bond.

Vanguard Long-Term Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard Long-Term is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard Long-Term's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard Long-Term Bond, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard Long-Term within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.04
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.44
σ
Overall volatility
2.96
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Vanguard Long-Term Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard Long-Term for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard Long-Term Bond can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
On 4th of November 2022 Vanguard Long-Term paid $ 0.2509 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Vanguard Long-Term Bond generated five year return of -2.0%
This fund holds about 9.19% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities

Vanguard Long-Term Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vanguard Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vanguard Long-Term's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vanguard Long-Term's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day391.51k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month494.53k

Vanguard Long-Term Technical Analysis

Vanguard Long-Term's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard Long-Term Bond. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Vanguard Long-Term Predictive Forecast Models

Vanguard Long-Term time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard Long-Term's etf analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Vanguard Long-Term's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Vanguard Long-Term Bond

Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard Long-Term for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard Long-Term Bond help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
On 4th of November 2022 Vanguard Long-Term paid $ 0.2509 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Vanguard Long-Term Bond generated five year return of -2.0%
This fund holds about 9.19% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities
Continue to Vanguard Long-Term Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Long-Term Correlation, Vanguard Long-Term Hype Analysis, Vanguard Long-Term Volatility, Vanguard Long-Term History as well as Vanguard Long-Term Performance. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

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When running Vanguard Long-Term Bond price analysis, check to measure Vanguard Long-Term's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vanguard Long-Term is operating at the current time. Most of Vanguard Long-Term's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vanguard Long-Term's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vanguard Long-Term's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vanguard Long-Term to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Vanguard Long-Term Bond is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vanguard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vanguard Long-Term's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vanguard Long-Term's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vanguard Long-Term's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vanguard Long-Term's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanguard Long-Term's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Vanguard Long-Term value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanguard Long-Term's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.