Bellus Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.85

BLU
 Stock
  

USD 10.23  0.35  3.31%   

Bellus Health's future price is the expected price of Bellus Health instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Bellus Health performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Bellus Health's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Bellus Health. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Bellus Health based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Bellus Health over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $10.0 is a CALL option contract on Bellus Health's common stock with a strick price of 10.0 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-23 at 12:01:06 for $1.05 and, as of today, has 26 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.85, and an ask price of $2.25. The implied volatility as of the 25th of September is 84.1871. View All Bellus options

Closest to current price Bellus long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Bellus Health Backtesting, Bellus Health Valuation, Bellus Health Correlation, Bellus Health Hype Analysis, Bellus Health Volatility, Bellus Health History as well as Bellus Health Performance. Please specify Bellus Health time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Bellus Health odds to be computed.

Bellus Health Target Price Odds to finish over 16.85

The tendency of Bellus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 16.85  or more in 90 days
 10.23 90 days 16.85 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Bellus Health to move over $ 16.85  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Bellus Health probability density function shows the probability of Bellus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Bellus Health price to stay between its current price of $ 10.23  and $ 16.85  at the end of the 90-day period is about 58.07 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.17 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Bellus Health will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.526, implying that it can generate a 0.53 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Bellus Health Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Bellus Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bellus Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bellus Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Bellus Health in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
6.2210.5514.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
7.7712.1016.43
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
7.5013.6920.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bellus Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bellus Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bellus Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Bellus Health.

Bellus Health Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Bellus Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Bellus Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Bellus Health, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Bellus Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.53
β
Beta against DOW1.17
σ
Overall volatility
1.08
Ir
Information ratio 0.12

Bellus Health Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Bellus Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Bellus Health can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Bellus Health has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Bellus Health has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 16 K. Reported Net Loss for the year was (69.83 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 16 K.
Bellus Health has about 233.97 M in cash with (60.13 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.19.
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.bnnbloomberg.ca: The Daily Chase U.S. dollar climbs Kinross plans share buybacks - BNN Bloomberg

Bellus Health Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Bellus Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Bellus Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bellus Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out14.55%
Float Shares72.38M
Shares Short Prior Month12.75M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day615.85k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.06M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Bellus Health Technical Analysis

Bellus Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Bellus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Bellus Health. In general, you should focus on analyzing Bellus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Bellus Health Predictive Forecast Models

Bellus Health time-series forecasting models is one of many Bellus Health's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Bellus Health's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Bellus Health

Checking the ongoing alerts about Bellus Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Bellus Health help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Bellus Health Alerts

Bellus Health Alerts and Suggestions

Bellus Health has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Bellus Health has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 16 K. Reported Net Loss for the year was (69.83 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 16 K.
Bellus Health has about 233.97 M in cash with (60.13 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.19.
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.bnnbloomberg.ca: The Daily Chase U.S. dollar climbs Kinross plans share buybacks - BNN Bloomberg
Continue to Bellus Health Backtesting, Bellus Health Valuation, Bellus Health Correlation, Bellus Health Hype Analysis, Bellus Health Volatility, Bellus Health History as well as Bellus Health Performance. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

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When running Bellus Health price analysis, check to measure Bellus Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bellus Health is operating at the current time. Most of Bellus Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bellus Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bellus Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bellus Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Bellus Health's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bellus Health. If investors know Bellus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bellus Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Bellus Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bellus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bellus Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bellus Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bellus Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bellus Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bellus Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Bellus Health value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bellus Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.