Big Lots Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 23.89

BIG
 Stock
  

USD 20.42  0.55  2.62%   

Big Lots' future price is the expected price of Big Lots instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Big Lots performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 2.27. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 15.48.
  
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Big Lots' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Big Lots. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Big Lots based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Big Lots over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-15 CALL at $20.0 is a CALL option contract on Big Lots' common stock with a strick price of 20.0 expiring on 2022-07-15. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-30 at 10:22:02 for $1.7 and, as of today, has 14 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.65, and an ask price of $1.8. The implied volatility as of the 1st of July is 70.7368. View All Big Lots options

Closest to current price Big Lots long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Big Lots Backtesting, Big Lots Valuation, Big Lots Correlation, Big Lots Hype Analysis, Big Lots Volatility, Big Lots History as well as Big Lots Performance. Please specify Big Lots time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Big Lots odds to be computed.
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Big Lots Target Price Odds to finish below 23.89

The tendency of Big Lots Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 23.89  after 90 days
 20.42 90 days 23.89  about 14.66
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Big Lots to stay under $ 23.89  after 90 days from now is about 14.66 (This Big Lots probability density function shows the probability of Big Lots Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Big Lots price to stay between its current price of $ 20.42  and $ 23.89  at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.81 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.36 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Big Lots will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Big Lots is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Big Lots Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Big Lots

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Big Lots. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Big Lots' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Big Lots in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
16.1820.8025.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
18.3526.5931.21
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
17.4822.1026.73
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
37.0046.0054.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Big Lots. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Big Lots' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Big Lots' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Big Lots.

Big Lots Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Big Lots is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Big Lots' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Big Lots, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Big Lots within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.53
β
Beta against DOW1.36
σ
Overall volatility
5.73
Ir
Information ratio -0.13

Big Lots Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Big Lots for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Big Lots can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Big Lots generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Big Lots has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Big Lots has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from www.cnbc.com: The markets worst first half in 50 years has all come down to one thing - CNBC

Big Lots Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Big Lots Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Big Lots' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Big Lots' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out24.14%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.20
Short Percent Of Float39.85%
Float Shares26.37M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.59M
Shares Short Prior Month7M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.53M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield5.54%

Big Lots Technical Analysis

Big Lots' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Big Lots Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Big Lots. In general, you should focus on analyzing Big Lots Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Big Lots Predictive Forecast Models

Big Lots time-series forecasting models is one of many Big Lots' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Big Lots' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Big Lots

Checking the ongoing alerts about Big Lots for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Big Lots help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Big Lots Alerts

Big Lots Alerts and Suggestions

Big Lots generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Big Lots has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Big Lots has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from www.cnbc.com: The markets worst first half in 50 years has all come down to one thing - CNBC
Continue to Big Lots Backtesting, Big Lots Valuation, Big Lots Correlation, Big Lots Hype Analysis, Big Lots Volatility, Big Lots History as well as Big Lots Performance. Note that the Big Lots information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Big Lots' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

Complementary Tools for Big Lots Stock analysis

When running Big Lots price analysis, check to measure Big Lots' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Big Lots is operating at the current time. Most of Big Lots' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Big Lots' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Big Lots' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Big Lots to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Big Lots' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Big Lots. If investors know Big Lots will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Big Lots listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.37
Market Capitalization
626.6 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.15
Return On Assets
0.017
Return On Equity
0.0642
The market value of Big Lots is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Big Lots that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Big Lots' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Big Lots' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Big Lots' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Big Lots' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Big Lots' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Big Lots value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Big Lots' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.