Big 5 Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 18.88

BGFV -  USA Stock  

USD 12.13  1.05  7.97%

Big 5's future price is the expected price of Big 5 instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Big 5 Sporting performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to climb to 82.12 in 2022, whereas Price to Book Value is likely to drop 1.29 in 2022.
  
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Big 5's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Big 5 Sporting. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Big 5 based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Big 5 Sporting over a specific time period. For example, 2022-06-17 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on Big 5's common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2022-06-17. The contract was last traded on 2022-05-26 at 15:37:07 for $1.0 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.95, and an ask price of $1.15. The implied volatility as of the 27th of May is 50.6029. View All Big 5 options

Closest to current price Big 5 long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Big 5 Backtesting, Big 5 Valuation, Big 5 Correlation, Big 5 Hype Analysis, Big 5 Volatility, Big 5 History as well as Big 5 Performance. Please specify Big 5 time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Big 5 odds to be computed.
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Big 5 Target Price Odds to finish below 18.88

The tendency of Big 5 Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 18.88  after 90 days
 12.13 90 days 18.88  about 98.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Big 5 to stay under $ 18.88  after 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Big 5 Sporting probability density function shows the probability of Big 5 Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Big 5 Sporting price to stay between its current price of $ 12.13  and $ 18.88  at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 96.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.54 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Big 5 will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Big 5 Sporting is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Big 5 Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Big 5

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Big 5 Sporting. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Big 5's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Big 5 in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7.7511.7415.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
6.2810.2714.26
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
7.9511.9415.93
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
4.504.514.52
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Big 5. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Big 5's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Big 5's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Big 5 Sporting.

Big 5 Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Big 5 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Big 5's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Big 5 Sporting, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Big 5 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.1
β
Beta against DOW1.54
σ
Overall volatility
1.64
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Big 5 Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Big 5 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Big 5 Sporting can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Big 5 Sporting generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Big 5 Sporting has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Latest headline from investorplace.com: Retails 3 Most-Shorted Stocks to Trade - InvestorPlace

Big 5 Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Big 5 Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Big 5's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Big 5's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out38.88%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.68
Short Percent Of Float40.80%
Float Shares20.61M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day908.85k
Shares Short Prior Month8.13M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month945.44k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield5.63%

Big 5 Technical Analysis

Big 5's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Big 5 Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Big 5 Sporting. In general, you should focus on analyzing Big 5 Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Big 5 Predictive Forecast Models

Big 5 time-series forecasting models is one of many Big 5's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Big 5's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Big 5 Sporting

Checking the ongoing alerts about Big 5 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Big 5 Sporting help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Big 5 Alerts

Big 5 Alerts and Suggestions

Big 5 Sporting generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Big 5 Sporting has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Latest headline from investorplace.com: Retails 3 Most-Shorted Stocks to Trade - InvestorPlace
Continue to Big 5 Backtesting, Big 5 Valuation, Big 5 Correlation, Big 5 Hype Analysis, Big 5 Volatility, Big 5 History as well as Big 5 Performance. Note that the Big 5 Sporting information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Big 5's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

Complementary Tools for Big 5 Stock analysis

When running Big 5 Sporting price analysis, check to measure Big 5's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Big 5 is operating at the current time. Most of Big 5's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Big 5's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Big 5's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Big 5 to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Big 5's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Big 5. If investors know Big 5 will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Big 5 listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Big 5 Sporting is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Big 5 that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Big 5's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Big 5's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Big 5's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Big 5's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Big 5's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Big 5 value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Big 5's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.