Build-A-Bear Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 22.01

BBW -  USA Stock  

USD 19.99  0.87  4.55%

Build-A-Bear Workshop's future price is the expected price of Build-A-Bear Workshop instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Build-A-Bear Workshop performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to climb to 83.39 in 2022, whereas Price to Book Value is likely to drop 2.75 in 2022.
  
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Build-A-Bear Workshop's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Build-A-Bear Workshop. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Build-A-Bear Workshop based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Build-A-Bear Workshop over a specific time period. For example, 2022-06-17 CALL at $20.0 is a CALL option contract on Build-A-Bear Workshop's common stock with a strick price of 20.0 expiring on 2022-06-17. The contract was last traded on 2022-05-27 at 14:10:36 for $1.5 and, as of today, has 20 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.2, and an ask price of $1.5. The implied volatility as of the 28th of May is 78.7786. View All Build-A-Bear options

Closest to current price Build-A-Bear long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Build-A-Bear Workshop Backtesting, Build-A-Bear Workshop Valuation, Build-A-Bear Workshop Correlation, Build-A-Bear Workshop Hype Analysis, Build-A-Bear Workshop Volatility, Build-A-Bear Workshop History as well as Build-A-Bear Workshop Performance. Please specify Build-A-Bear Workshop time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Build-A-Bear Workshop odds to be computed.
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Build-A-Bear Workshop Target Price Odds to finish over 22.01

The tendency of Build-A-Bear Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 22.01  or more in 90 days
 19.99 90 days 22.01  near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Build-A-Bear Workshop to move over $ 22.01  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Build-A-Bear Workshop probability density function shows the probability of Build-A-Bear Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Build-A-Bear Workshop price to stay between its current price of $ 19.99  and $ 22.01  at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.22 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.15 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Build-A-Bear Workshop will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1536, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Build-A-Bear Workshop Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Build-A-Bear Workshop

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Build-A-Bear Workshop. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Build-A-Bear Workshop's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Build-A-Bear Workshop in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.6116.6821.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
15.1720.2425.31
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
33.0033.0033.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.332.332.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Build-A-Bear Workshop. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Build-A-Bear Workshop's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Build-A-Bear Workshop's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Build-A-Bear Workshop.

Build-A-Bear Workshop Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Build-A-Bear Workshop is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Build-A-Bear Workshop's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Build-A-Bear Workshop, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Build-A-Bear Workshop within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.15
β
Beta against DOW2.15
σ
Overall volatility
1.20
Ir
Information ratio 0.030213

Build-A-Bear Workshop Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Build-A-Bear Workshop for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Build-A-Bear Workshop can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Build-A-Bear Workshop has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Build-A-Bear Workshop has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from Macroaxis: Is Build-A-Bear Workshop a new disruptor

Build-A-Bear Workshop Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Build-A-Bear Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Build-A-Bear Workshop's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Build-A-Bear Workshop's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out8.63%
Short Percent Of Float10.66%
Float Shares9.86M
Shares Short Prior Month1.11M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day283.63k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month317.12k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Build-A-Bear Workshop Technical Analysis

Build-A-Bear Workshop's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Build-A-Bear Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Build-A-Bear Workshop. In general, you should focus on analyzing Build-A-Bear Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Build-A-Bear Workshop Predictive Forecast Models

Build-A-Bear Workshop time-series forecasting models is one of many Build-A-Bear Workshop's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Build-A-Bear Workshop's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Build-A-Bear Workshop

Checking the ongoing alerts about Build-A-Bear Workshop for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Build-A-Bear Workshop help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Build-A-Bear Workshop Alerts

Build-A-Bear Workshop Alerts and Suggestions

Build-A-Bear Workshop has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Build-A-Bear Workshop has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 70.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from Macroaxis: Is Build-A-Bear Workshop a new disruptor
Continue to Build-A-Bear Workshop Backtesting, Build-A-Bear Workshop Valuation, Build-A-Bear Workshop Correlation, Build-A-Bear Workshop Hype Analysis, Build-A-Bear Workshop Volatility, Build-A-Bear Workshop History as well as Build-A-Bear Workshop Performance. Note that the Build-A-Bear Workshop information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Build-A-Bear Workshop's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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When running Build-A-Bear Workshop price analysis, check to measure Build-A-Bear Workshop's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Build-A-Bear Workshop is operating at the current time. Most of Build-A-Bear Workshop's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Build-A-Bear Workshop's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Build-A-Bear Workshop's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Build-A-Bear Workshop to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Build-A-Bear Workshop's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Build-A-Bear Workshop. If investors know Build-A-Bear will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Build-A-Bear Workshop listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Build-A-Bear Workshop is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Build-A-Bear that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Build-A-Bear Workshop's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Build-A-Bear Workshop's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Build-A-Bear Workshop's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Build-A-Bear Workshop's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Build-A-Bear Workshop's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Build-A-Bear Workshop value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Build-A-Bear Workshop's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.