BRADESCO (Brazil) Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 21.38

BBDC4
  

BRL 19.53  0.24  1.24%   

BRADESCO's future price is the expected price of BRADESCO instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of BRADESCO PN EJ performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Continue to BRADESCO Backtesting, BRADESCO Valuation, BRADESCO Correlation, BRADESCO Hype Analysis, BRADESCO Volatility, BRADESCO History as well as BRADESCO Performance. Please specify BRADESCO time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like BRADESCO odds to be computed.

BRADESCO Target Price Odds to finish below 21.38

The tendency of BRADESCO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under R$ 21.38  after 90 days
 19.53 90 days 21.38 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BRADESCO to stay under R$ 21.38  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This BRADESCO PN EJ probability density function shows the probability of BRADESCO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BRADESCO PN EJ price to stay between its current price of R$ 19.53  and R$ 21.38  at the end of the 90-day period is about 14.07 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon BRADESCO has a beta of 0.18 suggesting as returns on the market go up, BRADESCO average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding BRADESCO PN EJ will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0506, implying that it can generate a 0.0506 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   BRADESCO Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for BRADESCO

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BRADESCO PN EJ. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of BRADESCO's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of BRADESCO in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
18.1319.5320.93
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
17.5218.9220.32
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
18.7220.1221.52
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
16.1417.8419.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BRADESCO. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BRADESCO's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BRADESCO's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in BRADESCO PN EJ.

BRADESCO Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BRADESCO is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BRADESCO's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BRADESCO PN EJ, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BRADESCO within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.05
β
Beta against DOW0.18
σ
Overall volatility
1.12
Ir
Information ratio -0.0057

BRADESCO Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BRADESCO for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BRADESCO PN EJ can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
BRADESCO PN EJ generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
BRADESCO PN EJ has accumulated about 152.86 B in cash with (168.08 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 14.34.

BRADESCO Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BRADESCO Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BRADESCO's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BRADESCO's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.37
Float Shares7.6B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day32.14M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month36.63M
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.13%

BRADESCO Technical Analysis

BRADESCO's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BRADESCO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BRADESCO PN EJ. In general, you should focus on analyzing BRADESCO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

BRADESCO Predictive Forecast Models

BRADESCO time-series forecasting models is one of many BRADESCO's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary BRADESCO's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about BRADESCO PN EJ

Checking the ongoing alerts about BRADESCO for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BRADESCO PN EJ help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

BRADESCO Alerts

BRADESCO Alerts and Suggestions

BRADESCO PN EJ generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
BRADESCO PN EJ has accumulated about 152.86 B in cash with (168.08 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 14.34.
Continue to BRADESCO Backtesting, BRADESCO Valuation, BRADESCO Correlation, BRADESCO Hype Analysis, BRADESCO Volatility, BRADESCO History as well as BRADESCO Performance. Note that the BRADESCO PN EJ information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other BRADESCO's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

Complementary Tools for BRADESCO Stock analysis

When running BRADESCO PN EJ price analysis, check to measure BRADESCO's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BRADESCO is operating at the current time. Most of BRADESCO's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BRADESCO's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BRADESCO's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BRADESCO to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between BRADESCO's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine BRADESCO value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BRADESCO's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.