Blackberry Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.07

BB
 Stock
  

USD 5.07  0.17  3.24%   

Blackberry's future price is the expected price of Blackberry instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Blackberry performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Blackberry's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Blackberry. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Blackberry based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Blackberry over a specific time period. For example, 2022-09-30 CALL at $5.0 is a CALL option contract on Blackberry's common stock with a strick price of 5.0 expiring on 2022-09-30. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-23 at 15:55:21 for $0.29 and, as of today, has 6 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.28, and an ask price of $0.3. The implied volatility as of the 24th of September is 98.0992. View All Blackberry options

Closest to current price Blackberry long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Blackberry Backtesting, Blackberry Valuation, Blackberry Correlation, Blackberry Hype Analysis, Blackberry Volatility, Blackberry History as well as Blackberry Performance. Please specify Blackberry time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Blackberry odds to be computed.

Blackberry Target Price Odds to finish over 5.07

The tendency of Blackberry Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 5.07 90 days 5.07 
about 98.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Blackberry to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Blackberry probability density function shows the probability of Blackberry Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.76 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Blackberry will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0463, implying that it can generate a 0.0463 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Blackberry Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Blackberry

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blackberry. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blackberry's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Blackberry in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
2.535.448.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3.506.419.32
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
7.509.0010.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Blackberry. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Blackberry's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Blackberry's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Blackberry.

Blackberry Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Blackberry is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Blackberry's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Blackberry, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Blackberry within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.046285
β
Beta against DOW1.76
σ
Overall volatility
0.45
Ir
Information ratio 0.003185

Blackberry Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Blackberry for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Blackberry can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Blackberry generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company generated the yearly revenue of 712 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (107 M) with gross profit of 467 M.
Blackberry reports about 663 M in cash with (37 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.15.
Latest headline from investorplace.com: 7 Stocks to Buy to Play the Tech Cold War - InvestorPlace

Blackberry Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Blackberry Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Blackberry's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Blackberry's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out5.74%
Short Percent Of Float6.36%
Float Shares491.28M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day5.52M
Shares Short Prior Month33.16M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month6.03M
Date Short Interest31st of August 2022

Blackberry Technical Analysis

Blackberry's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Blackberry Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Blackberry. In general, you should focus on analyzing Blackberry Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Blackberry Predictive Forecast Models

Blackberry time-series forecasting models is one of many Blackberry's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Blackberry's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Blackberry

Checking the ongoing alerts about Blackberry for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Blackberry help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Blackberry Alerts

Blackberry Alerts and Suggestions

Blackberry generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company generated the yearly revenue of 712 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (107 M) with gross profit of 467 M.
Blackberry reports about 663 M in cash with (37 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.15.
Latest headline from investorplace.com: 7 Stocks to Buy to Play the Tech Cold War - InvestorPlace
Continue to Blackberry Backtesting, Blackberry Valuation, Blackberry Correlation, Blackberry Hype Analysis, Blackberry Volatility, Blackberry History as well as Blackberry Performance. Note that the Blackberry information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Blackberry's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

Complementary Tools for Blackberry Stock analysis

When running Blackberry price analysis, check to measure Blackberry's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blackberry is operating at the current time. Most of Blackberry's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blackberry's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blackberry's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blackberry to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
Go
Idea Analyzer
Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas
Go
Pattern Recognition
Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Go
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Go
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
Go
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
Go
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Go
Probability Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Go
Is Blackberry's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blackberry. If investors know Blackberry will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blackberry listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Blackberry is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blackberry that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blackberry's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blackberry's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blackberry's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blackberry's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blackberry's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Blackberry value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blackberry's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.