Alibaba Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 125.06

BABA
 Stock
  

USD 119.12  1.01  0.84%   

Alibaba Group's future price is the expected price of Alibaba Group instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Alibaba Group Holding performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 2.04. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 30.35.
  
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Alibaba Group's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Alibaba Group Holding. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Alibaba Group based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Alibaba Group Holding over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-08 CALL at $119.0 is a CALL option contract on Alibaba Group's common stock with a strick price of 119.0 expiring on 2022-07-08. The contract was last traded on 2022-07-05 at 15:59:11 for $3.65 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.8, and an ask price of $4.0. The implied volatility as of the 6th of July is 76.2332. View All Alibaba options

Closest to current price Alibaba long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Continue to Alibaba Group Backtesting, Alibaba Group Valuation, Alibaba Group Correlation, Alibaba Group Hype Analysis, Alibaba Group Volatility, Alibaba Group History as well as Alibaba Group Performance. Please specify Alibaba Group time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alibaba Group odds to be computed.
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Alibaba Group Target Price Odds to finish over 125.06

The tendency of Alibaba Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 125.06  or more in 90 days
 119.12 90 days 125.06  about 1.08
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alibaba Group to move over $ 125.06  or more in 90 days from now is about 1.08 (This Alibaba Group Holding probability density function shows the probability of Alibaba Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alibaba Group Holding price to stay between its current price of $ 119.12  and $ 125.06  at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.74 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.59 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Alibaba Group will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.4582, implying that it can generate a 0.46 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Alibaba Group Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Alibaba Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alibaba Group Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alibaba Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alibaba Group in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
112.14116.96121.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
105.46141.42146.24
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
140.00229.39407.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
5.946.587.01
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alibaba Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alibaba Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alibaba Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alibaba Group Holding.

Alibaba Group Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alibaba Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alibaba Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alibaba Group Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alibaba Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.46
β
Beta against DOW1.59
σ
Overall volatility
11.29
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Alibaba Group Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alibaba Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alibaba Group Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Alibaba Group has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Alibaba Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: Is JD.com a Buy Now - Nasdaq

Alibaba Group Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alibaba Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alibaba Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alibaba Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.49%
Float Shares1.89B
Shares Short Prior Month36.35M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day27.61M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month27.51M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Alibaba Group Technical Analysis

Alibaba Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alibaba Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alibaba Group Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alibaba Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Alibaba Group Predictive Forecast Models

Alibaba Group time-series forecasting models is one of many Alibaba Group's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Alibaba Group's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Alibaba Group Holding

Checking the ongoing alerts about Alibaba Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alibaba Group Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Alibaba Group Alerts

Alibaba Group Alerts and Suggestions

Alibaba Group has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Alibaba Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: Is JD.com a Buy Now - Nasdaq
Continue to Alibaba Group Backtesting, Alibaba Group Valuation, Alibaba Group Correlation, Alibaba Group Hype Analysis, Alibaba Group Volatility, Alibaba Group History as well as Alibaba Group Performance. Note that the Alibaba Group Holding information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alibaba Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for Alibaba Stock analysis

When running Alibaba Group Holding price analysis, check to measure Alibaba Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alibaba Group is operating at the current time. Most of Alibaba Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alibaba Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alibaba Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alibaba Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alibaba Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alibaba Group. If investors know Alibaba will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alibaba Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.74
Market Capitalization
310.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.089
Return On Assets
0.035
Return On Equity
0.0439
The market value of Alibaba Group Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alibaba that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alibaba Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alibaba Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alibaba Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alibaba Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alibaba Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alibaba Group value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alibaba Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.