American Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 134.33

AXP
 Stock
  

USD 165.84  2.85  1.75%   

American Express' future price is the expected price of American Express instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of American Express performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. American Express Price to Earnings Ratio are very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. American Express reported last year Price to Earnings Ratio of 16.30. As of 13th of August 2022, Price to Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 3.03, while Price to Book Value is likely to drop 5.39.
  
American Express' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on American Express. Implied volatility approximates the future value of American Express based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in American Express over a specific time period. For example, 2022-08-12 CALL at $165.0 is a CALL option contract on American Express' common stock with a strick price of 165.0 expiring on 2022-08-12. The contract was last traded on 2022-08-11 at 15:58:16 for $0.23 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.19, and an ask price of $0.31. The implied volatility as of the 13th of August 2022 is 26.2287. View All American options

Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to American Express Backtesting, American Express Valuation, American Express Correlation, American Express Hype Analysis, American Express Volatility, American Express History as well as American Express Performance. Please specify American Express time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Express odds to be computed.

American Express Target Price Odds to finish over 134.33

The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 134.33  in 90 days
 165.84 90 days 134.33 
roughly 97.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Express to stay above $ 134.33  in 90 days from now is roughly 97.0 (This American Express probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Express price to stay between $ 134.33  and its current price of $165.84 at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.39 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.46 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, American Express will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. American Express is significantly underperforming DOW.
   American Express Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for American Express

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Express in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
163.30165.52167.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
149.26174.98177.20
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
165.86168.08170.30
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
151.00190.75233.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Express. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Express' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Express' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Express.

American Express Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Express is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Express' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Express, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Express within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.05
β
Beta against DOW1.46
σ
Overall volatility
9.54
Ir
Information ratio -0.0059

American Express Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Express for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Express can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 10th of August 2022 American Express paid $ 0.52 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: American Express launches digital payment solution for U.S. Small Businesses - Seeking Alpha

American Express Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Express' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Express' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date30th of June 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out1.11%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.90
Short Percent Of Float1.39%
Float Shares597.01M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.25M
Shares Short Prior Month9.06M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.55M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

American Express Technical Analysis

American Express' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Express. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

American Express Predictive Forecast Models

American Express time-series forecasting models is one of many American Express' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary American Express' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about American Express

Checking the ongoing alerts about American Express for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Express help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

American Express Alerts

American Express Alerts and Suggestions

Over 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 10th of August 2022 American Express paid $ 0.52 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: American Express launches digital payment solution for U.S. Small Businesses - Seeking Alpha
Please continue to American Express Backtesting, American Express Valuation, American Express Correlation, American Express Hype Analysis, American Express Volatility, American Express History as well as American Express Performance. Note that the American Express information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Express' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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When running American Express price analysis, check to measure American Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Express is operating at the current time. Most of American Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Express' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Express. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Express listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.082
Market Capitalization
122.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.2
Return On Assets
0.0388
Return On Equity
0.31
The market value of American Express is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Express' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Express' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Express' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Express' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Express' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Express value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Express' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.