Anavex Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.81

AVXL
 Stock
  

USD 10.81  0.08  0.73%   

Anavex Lf's future price is the expected price of Anavex Lf instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Anavex Lf SC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Anavex Lf's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Anavex Lf SC. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Anavex Lf based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Anavex Lf SC over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-07 CALL at $11.0 is a CALL option contract on Anavex Lf's common stock with a strick price of 11.0 expiring on 2022-10-07. The contract was last traded on 2022-10-04 at 12:41:37 for $0.3 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.2, and an ask price of $0.55. The implied volatility as of the 5th of October is 108.7727. View All Anavex options

Closest to current price Anavex long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Anavex Lf Backtesting, Anavex Lf Valuation, Anavex Lf Correlation, Anavex Lf Hype Analysis, Anavex Lf Volatility, Anavex Lf History as well as Anavex Lf Performance. Please specify Anavex Lf time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Anavex Lf odds to be computed.

Anavex Lf Target Price Odds to finish over 10.81

The tendency of Anavex Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 10.81 90 days 10.81 
about 40.68
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Anavex Lf to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 40.68 (This Anavex Lf SC probability density function shows the probability of Anavex Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.69 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Anavex Lf will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2556, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Anavex Lf Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Anavex Lf

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Anavex Lf SC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Anavex Lf's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Anavex Lf in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
6.2310.8315.43
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.7317.1121.71
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
30.7535.9540.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Anavex Lf. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Anavex Lf's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Anavex Lf's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Anavex Lf SC.

Anavex Lf Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Anavex Lf is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Anavex Lf's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Anavex Lf SC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Anavex Lf within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.26
β
Beta against DOW1.69
σ
Overall volatility
1.06
Ir
Information ratio 0.047997

Anavex Lf Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Anavex Lf for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Anavex Lf SC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Anavex Lf SC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Anavex Lf SC has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Anavex Lf SC has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
Net Loss for the year was (43.22 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0.
Anavex Lf SC currently holds about 153.34 M in cash with (28.34 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.98.

Anavex Lf Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Anavex Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Anavex Lf's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Anavex Lf's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out10.67%
Short Percent Of Float10.98%
Float Shares75.06M
Shares Short Prior Month9.5M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day915.15k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month817.24k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Anavex Lf Technical Analysis

Anavex Lf's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Anavex Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Anavex Lf SC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Anavex Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Anavex Lf Predictive Forecast Models

Anavex Lf time-series forecasting models is one of many Anavex Lf's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Anavex Lf's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Anavex Lf SC

Checking the ongoing alerts about Anavex Lf for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Anavex Lf SC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Anavex Lf SC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Anavex Lf SC has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Anavex Lf SC has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
Net Loss for the year was (43.22 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0.
Anavex Lf SC currently holds about 153.34 M in cash with (28.34 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.98.
Please continue to Anavex Lf Backtesting, Anavex Lf Valuation, Anavex Lf Correlation, Anavex Lf Hype Analysis, Anavex Lf Volatility, Anavex Lf History as well as Anavex Lf Performance. You can also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Anavex Lf SC price analysis, check to measure Anavex Lf's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Anavex Lf is operating at the current time. Most of Anavex Lf's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Anavex Lf's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Anavex Lf's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Anavex Lf to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Anavex Lf's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Anavex Lf. If investors know Anavex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Anavex Lf listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Anavex Lf SC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Anavex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Anavex Lf's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Anavex Lf's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Anavex Lf's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Anavex Lf's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Anavex Lf's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Anavex Lf value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Anavex Lf's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.