Aviat Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 32.84

AVNW
 Stock
  

USD 32.84  0.54  1.67%   

Aviat Networks' future price is the expected price of Aviat Networks instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Aviat Networks performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is likely to climb to 1.64 in 2022, whereas Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop (50.25)  in 2022.
  
Aviat Networks' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Aviat Networks. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Aviat Networks based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Aviat Networks over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $35.0 is a CALL option contract on Aviat Networks' common stock with a strick price of 35.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-01 at 15:26:57 for $0.12 and, as of today, has 12 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.1, and an ask price of $0.35. The implied volatility as of the 4th of December is 36.0726. View All Aviat options

Closest to current price Aviat long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Aviat Networks Backtesting, Aviat Networks Valuation, Aviat Networks Correlation, Aviat Networks Hype Analysis, Aviat Networks Volatility, Aviat Networks History as well as Aviat Networks Performance. Please specify Aviat Networks time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Aviat Networks odds to be computed.

Aviat Networks Target Price Odds to finish over 32.84

The tendency of Aviat Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 32.84 90 days 32.84 
about 6.18
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aviat Networks to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 6.18 (This Aviat Networks probability density function shows the probability of Aviat Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aviat Networks has a beta of 0.93. This suggests Aviat Networks market returns are correlated to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Aviat Networks is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.007, implying that it can generate a 0.006968 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Aviat Networks Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Aviat Networks

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aviat Networks. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aviat Networks' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Aviat Networks in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
30.2232.8235.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
29.5642.6045.20
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.5053.8857.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.282.402.56
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aviat Networks. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aviat Networks' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aviat Networks' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Aviat Networks.

Aviat Networks Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aviat Networks is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aviat Networks' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aviat Networks, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aviat Networks within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.006968
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.93
σ
Overall volatility
1.74
Ir
Information ratio 0.000149

Aviat Networks Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aviat Networks for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aviat Networks can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aviat Networks has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 77.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Taten Bruce M of 4078 shares of Aviat Networks subject to Rule 16b-3

Aviat Networks Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aviat Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aviat Networks' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aviat Networks' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding11820000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments47770000.00

Aviat Networks Technical Analysis

Aviat Networks' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aviat Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aviat Networks. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aviat Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Aviat Networks Predictive Forecast Models

Aviat Networks time-series forecasting models is one of many Aviat Networks' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Aviat Networks' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Aviat Networks

Checking the ongoing alerts about Aviat Networks for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aviat Networks help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aviat Networks has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 77.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Acquisition by Taten Bruce M of 4078 shares of Aviat Networks subject to Rule 16b-3
Please continue to Aviat Networks Backtesting, Aviat Networks Valuation, Aviat Networks Correlation, Aviat Networks Hype Analysis, Aviat Networks Volatility, Aviat Networks History as well as Aviat Networks Performance. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

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When running Aviat Networks price analysis, check to measure Aviat Networks' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aviat Networks is operating at the current time. Most of Aviat Networks' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aviat Networks' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aviat Networks' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aviat Networks to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aviat Networks' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aviat Networks. If investors know Aviat will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aviat Networks listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.7
Market Capitalization
371.8 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.11
Return On Assets
0.0538
Return On Equity
0.0709
The market value of Aviat Networks is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aviat that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aviat Networks' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aviat Networks' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aviat Networks' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aviat Networks' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aviat Networks' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aviat Networks value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aviat Networks' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.