Astronics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 14.99

ATRO
 Stock
  

USD 10.54  0.31  2.86%   

Astronics' future price is the expected price of Astronics instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Astronics Cp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Astronics Price to Book Value is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current Price to Book Value is estimated at 2.11. Price to Sales Ratio is expected to rise to 1.08 this year, although the value of Price to Earnings Ratio will most likely fall to (15.02) .
  
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Astronics' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Astronics Cp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Astronics based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Astronics Cp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-15 CALL at $10.0 is a CALL option contract on Astronics' common stock with a strick price of 10.0 expiring on 2022-07-15. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-13 at 09:36:59 for $1.75 and, as of today, has 17 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.65, and an ask price of $1.4. The implied volatility as of the 28th of June is 81.3991. View All Astronics options

Closest to current price Astronics long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Astronics Backtesting, Astronics Valuation, Astronics Correlation, Astronics Hype Analysis, Astronics Volatility, Astronics History as well as Astronics Performance. Please specify Astronics time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Astronics odds to be computed.
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Astronics Target Price Odds to finish over 14.99

The tendency of Astronics Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 14.99  or more in 90 days
 10.54 90 days 14.99  near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Astronics to move over $ 14.99  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Astronics Cp probability density function shows the probability of Astronics Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Astronics Cp price to stay between its current price of $ 10.54  and $ 14.99  at the end of the 90-day period is about 70.54 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Astronics has a beta of 0.82. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Astronics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Astronics Cp will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Astronics Cp is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Astronics Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Astronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astronics Cp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astronics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Astronics in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7.4210.5313.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.4913.7016.81
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
7.1910.3113.42
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.0016.5019.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Astronics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Astronics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Astronics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Astronics Cp.

Astronics Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Astronics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Astronics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Astronics Cp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Astronics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.23
β
Beta against DOW0.82
σ
Overall volatility
1.00
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Astronics Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Astronics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Astronics Cp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Astronics Cp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Astronics Cp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 444.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (25.58 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 54.9 M.
Astronics Cp currently holds about 29.76 M in cash with (5.53 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.94.
Roughly 73.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Calaway Tonit M of 3380 shares of Astronics subject to Rule 16b-3

Astronics Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Astronics Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Astronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.28%
Short Percent Of Float1.63%
Float Shares27.54M
Shares Short Prior Month332.37k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day199.26k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month129.6k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Astronics Technical Analysis

Astronics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Astronics Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Astronics Cp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Astronics Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Astronics Predictive Forecast Models

Astronics time-series forecasting models is one of many Astronics' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Astronics' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Astronics Cp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Astronics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Astronics Cp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Astronics Alerts

Astronics Alerts and Suggestions

Astronics Cp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Astronics Cp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 444.91 M. Net Loss for the year was (25.58 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 54.9 M.
Astronics Cp currently holds about 29.76 M in cash with (5.53 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.94.
Roughly 73.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Exercise or conversion by Calaway Tonit M of 3380 shares of Astronics subject to Rule 16b-3
Please continue to Astronics Backtesting, Astronics Valuation, Astronics Correlation, Astronics Hype Analysis, Astronics Volatility, Astronics History as well as Astronics Performance. Note that the Astronics Cp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Astronics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

Complementary Tools for Astronics Stock analysis

When running Astronics Cp price analysis, check to measure Astronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astronics is operating at the current time. Most of Astronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Astronics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Astronics. If investors know Astronics will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Astronics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.93
Market Capitalization
346.8 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.097
Return On Assets
-0.0305
Return On Equity
-0.0645
The market value of Astronics Cp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Astronics that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Astronics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Astronics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Astronics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Astronics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Astronics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Astronics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Astronics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.