Astra Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.35

ASTR -  USA Stock  

USD 2.47  0.12  5.11%

Astra Space's future price is the expected price of Astra Space instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Astra Space performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 05/28/2022, Price to Book Value is likely to grow to 4.43, while Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop (0.96) .
  
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Astra Space's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Astra Space. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Astra Space based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Astra Space over a specific time period. For example, 2022-06-17 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on Astra Space's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2022-06-17. The contract was last traded on 2022-05-27 at 15:44:04 for $0.2 and, as of today, has 20 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.2, and an ask price of $0.25. The implied volatility as of the 28th of May is 90.4571. View All Astra options

Closest to current price Astra long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Astra Space Backtesting, Astra Space Valuation, Astra Space Correlation, Astra Space Hype Analysis, Astra Space Volatility, Astra Space History as well as Astra Space Performance. Please specify Astra Space time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Astra Space odds to be computed.
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Astra Space Target Price Odds to finish over 5.35

The tendency of Astra Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 5.35  or more in 90 days
 2.47 90 days 5.35  near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Astra Space to move over $ 5.35  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Astra Space probability density function shows the probability of Astra Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Astra Space price to stay between its current price of $ 2.47  and $ 5.35  at the end of the 90-day period is more than 94.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.61 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Astra Space will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Astra Space is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Astra Space Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Astra Space

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astra Space. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astra Space's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Astra Space in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.122.427.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.234.559.70
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
9.0011.0013.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.14-0.91-0.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Astra Space. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Astra Space's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Astra Space's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Astra Space.

Astra Space Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Astra Space is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Astra Space's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Astra Space, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Astra Space within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.35
β
Beta against DOW1.61
σ
Overall volatility
0.62
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

Astra Space Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Astra Space for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Astra Space can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Astra Space generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Astra Space has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Net Loss for the year was (1.27 B).
Astra Space currently holds about 325.01 M in cash with (114.36 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.23.
Astra Space has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Payment of 41751 shares by Lyon Benjamin of Astra Space subject to Rule 16b-3

Astra Space Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Astra Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Astra Space's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astra Space's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out7.98%
Short Percent Of Float18.41%
Float Shares112.49M
Shares Short Prior Month22.75M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.85M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month4.87M
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022

Astra Space Technical Analysis

Astra Space's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Astra Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Astra Space. In general, you should focus on analyzing Astra Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Astra Space Predictive Forecast Models

Astra Space time-series forecasting models is one of many Astra Space's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Astra Space's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Astra Space

Checking the ongoing alerts about Astra Space for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Astra Space help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Astra Space Alerts

Astra Space Alerts and Suggestions

Astra Space generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Astra Space has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Net Loss for the year was (1.27 B).
Astra Space currently holds about 325.01 M in cash with (114.36 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.23.
Astra Space has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Payment of 41751 shares by Lyon Benjamin of Astra Space subject to Rule 16b-3
Please continue to Astra Space Backtesting, Astra Space Valuation, Astra Space Correlation, Astra Space Hype Analysis, Astra Space Volatility, Astra Space History as well as Astra Space Performance. Note that the Astra Space information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Astra Space's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Astra Stock analysis

When running Astra Space price analysis, check to measure Astra Space's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astra Space is operating at the current time. Most of Astra Space's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astra Space's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astra Space's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astra Space to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Astra Space's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Astra Space. If investors know Astra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Astra Space listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Astra Space is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Astra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Astra Space's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Astra Space's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Astra Space's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Astra Space's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Astra Space's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Astra Space value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Astra Space's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.