Academy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 31.49

ASO
 Stock
  

USD 35.54  0.36  1.00%   

Academy Sports' future price is the expected price of Academy Sports instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Academy Sports And performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to rise to 5.54 this year, although Price to Book Value will most likely fall to 2.11.
  
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Academy Sports' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Academy Sports And. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Academy Sports based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Academy Sports And over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-01 CALL at $35.5 is a CALL option contract on Academy Sports' common stock with a strick price of 35.5 expiring on 2022-07-01. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-29 at 10:13:09 for $1.09 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.4, and an ask price of $0.65. The implied volatility as of the 1st of July is 68.0103. View All Academy options

Closest to current price Academy long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Academy Sports Backtesting, Academy Sports Valuation, Academy Sports Correlation, Academy Sports Hype Analysis, Academy Sports Volatility, Academy Sports History as well as Academy Sports Performance. Please specify Academy Sports time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Academy Sports odds to be computed.
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Academy Sports Target Price Odds to finish below 31.49

The tendency of Academy Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 31.49  or more in 90 days
 35.54 90 days 31.49  under 4
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Academy Sports to drop to $ 31.49  or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Academy Sports And probability density function shows the probability of Academy Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Academy Sports And price to stay between $ 31.49  and its current price of $35.54 at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.33 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.03 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Academy Sports will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.4447, implying that it can generate a 0.44 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Academy Sports Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Academy Sports

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Academy Sports And. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Academy Sports' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Academy Sports in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
31.3935.5639.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
31.9945.7249.89
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
30.1934.3738.54
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0056.2568.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Academy Sports. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Academy Sports' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Academy Sports' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Academy Sports And.

Academy Sports Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Academy Sports is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Academy Sports' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Academy Sports And, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Academy Sports within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.44
β
Beta against DOW2.03
σ
Overall volatility
2.87
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Academy Sports Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Academy Sports for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Academy Sports And can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Academy Sports And generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Academy Sports And has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Academy Sports And has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from www.gurufocus.com: Academy Sports Outdoors Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend - GuruFocus.com

Academy Sports Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Academy Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Academy Sports' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Academy Sports' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date15th of June 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out10.44%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.15
Short Percent Of Float18.97%
Float Shares79.71M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.75M
Shares Short Prior Month11.69M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.84M
Date Short Interest31st of May 2022

Academy Sports Technical Analysis

Academy Sports' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Academy Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Academy Sports And. In general, you should focus on analyzing Academy Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Academy Sports Predictive Forecast Models

Academy Sports time-series forecasting models is one of many Academy Sports' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Academy Sports' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Academy Sports And

Checking the ongoing alerts about Academy Sports for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Academy Sports And help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Academy Sports Alerts

Academy Sports Alerts and Suggestions

Academy Sports And generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Academy Sports And has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Academy Sports And has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Latest headline from www.gurufocus.com: Academy Sports Outdoors Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend - GuruFocus.com
Please continue to Academy Sports Backtesting, Academy Sports Valuation, Academy Sports Correlation, Academy Sports Hype Analysis, Academy Sports Volatility, Academy Sports History as well as Academy Sports Performance. Note that the Academy Sports And information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Academy Sports' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Focused Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.

Complementary Tools for Academy Stock analysis

When running Academy Sports And price analysis, check to measure Academy Sports' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Academy Sports is operating at the current time. Most of Academy Sports' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Academy Sports' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Academy Sports' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Academy Sports to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Academy Sports' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Academy Sports. If investors know Academy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Academy Sports listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.082
Market Capitalization
3.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.071
Return On Assets
0.12
Return On Equity
0.45
The market value of Academy Sports And is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Academy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Academy Sports' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Academy Sports' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Academy Sports' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Academy Sports' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Academy Sports' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Academy Sports value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Academy Sports' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.