Armour Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 7.57

ARR
 Stock
  

USD 6.01  0.27  4.30%   

Armour Residential's future price is the expected price of Armour Residential instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Armour Residential R performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Armour Residential's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Armour Residential R. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Armour Residential based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Armour Residential R over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $5.0 is a CALL option contract on Armour Residential's common stock with a strick price of 5.0 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-23 at 14:12:49 for $1.0 and, as of today, has 26 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.0, and an ask price of $1.1. The implied volatility as of the 25th of September is 79.3254. View All Armour options

Closest to current price Armour long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Armour Residential Backtesting, Armour Residential Valuation, Armour Residential Correlation, Armour Residential Hype Analysis, Armour Residential Volatility, Armour Residential History as well as Armour Residential Performance. Please specify Armour Residential time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Armour Residential odds to be computed.

Armour Residential Target Price Odds to finish over 7.57

The tendency of Armour Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 7.57  or more in 90 days
 6.01 90 days 7.57 
about 14.16
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Armour Residential to move over $ 7.57  or more in 90 days from now is about 14.16 (This Armour Residential R probability density function shows the probability of Armour Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Armour Residential price to stay between its current price of $ 6.01  and $ 7.57  at the end of the 90-day period is about 85.51 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Armour Residential has a beta of 0.99. This suggests Armour Residential R market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Armour Residential is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0026, implying that it can generate a 0.002603 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Armour Residential Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Armour Residential

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Armour Residential. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Armour Residential's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Armour Residential in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
4.035.977.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
5.437.379.31
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
3.615.557.49
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
11.0011.0011.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Armour Residential. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Armour Residential's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Armour Residential's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Armour Residential.

Armour Residential Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Armour Residential is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Armour Residential's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Armour Residential R, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Armour Residential within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.002603
β
Beta against DOW0.99
σ
Overall volatility
0.41
Ir
Information ratio 0.001441

Armour Residential Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Armour Residential for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Armour Residential can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Armour Residential generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Armour Residential has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Reported Net Loss for the year was (123.8 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 50.28 M.
Armour Residential R has about 7.41 B in cash with (98.94 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 64.68, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
On 29th of August 2022 Armour Residential paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders

Armour Residential Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Armour Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Armour Residential's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Armour Residential's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out12.17%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.99
Short Percent Of Float14.40%
Float Shares113.38M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.25M
Shares Short Prior Month12.66M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.93M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield15.42%

Armour Residential Technical Analysis

Armour Residential's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Armour Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Armour Residential R. In general, you should focus on analyzing Armour Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Armour Residential Predictive Forecast Models

Armour Residential time-series forecasting models is one of many Armour Residential's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Armour Residential's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Armour Residential

Checking the ongoing alerts about Armour Residential for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Armour Residential help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Armour Residential Alerts

Armour Residential Alerts and Suggestions

Armour Residential generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Armour Residential has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
Reported Net Loss for the year was (123.8 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 50.28 M.
Armour Residential R has about 7.41 B in cash with (98.94 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 64.68, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
On 29th of August 2022 Armour Residential paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Please continue to Armour Residential Backtesting, Armour Residential Valuation, Armour Residential Correlation, Armour Residential Hype Analysis, Armour Residential Volatility, Armour Residential History as well as Armour Residential Performance. You can also try Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..

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Is Armour Residential's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Armour Residential. If investors know Armour will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Armour Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Armour Residential is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Armour that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Armour Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Armour Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Armour Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Armour Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Armour Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Armour Residential value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Armour Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.