Arena Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.24

AREN
 Stock
  

USD 13.24  0.13  0.97%   

Arena Group's future price is the expected price of Arena Group instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Arena Group Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Please continue to Arena Group Backtesting, Arena Group Valuation, Arena Group Correlation, Arena Group Hype Analysis, Arena Group Volatility, Arena Group History as well as Arena Group Performance. Please specify Arena Group time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Arena Group odds to be computed.

Arena Group Target Price Odds to finish over 13.24

The tendency of Arena Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 13.24 90 days 13.24 
about 45.96
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arena Group to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 45.96 (This Arena Group Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Arena Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.03 . This suggests Arena Group Holdings market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Arena Group is expected to follow. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2091, implying that it can generate a 0.21 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Arena Group Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Arena Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arena Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arena Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Arena Group in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.1313.1116.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.1313.1116.09
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
10.5913.5816.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
13.0313.6014.18
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Arena Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Arena Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Arena Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Arena Group Holdings.

Arena Group Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arena Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arena Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arena Group Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arena Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.21
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.03
σ
Overall volatility
0.69
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Arena Group Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arena Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arena Group Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company currently holds 64.37 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.5, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Arena Group Holdings has a current ratio of 0.62, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Arena Group until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Arena Group's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Arena Group Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Arena to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Arena Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 128.03 M. Net Loss for the year was (89.23 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 79.96 M.
Arena Group Holdings currently holds about 13.3 M in cash with (32.29 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.74.
Roughly 57.0% of Arena Group shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Stephen Curry Is Revealed as 2022 Sports Illustrated Sportsperson of the Year MarketScreener - Marketscreener.com

Arena Group Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arena Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arena Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arena Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2090067.00
Cash And Short Term Investments9033872.00

Arena Group Technical Analysis

Arena Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arena Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arena Group Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arena Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Arena Group Predictive Forecast Models

Arena Group time-series forecasting models is one of many Arena Group's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Arena Group's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Arena Group Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about Arena Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arena Group Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company currently holds 64.37 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.5, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Arena Group Holdings has a current ratio of 0.62, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Arena Group until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Arena Group's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Arena Group Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Arena to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Arena Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 128.03 M. Net Loss for the year was (89.23 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 79.96 M.
Arena Group Holdings currently holds about 13.3 M in cash with (32.29 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.74.
Roughly 57.0% of Arena Group shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Stephen Curry Is Revealed as 2022 Sports Illustrated Sportsperson of the Year MarketScreener - Marketscreener.com
Please continue to Arena Group Backtesting, Arena Group Valuation, Arena Group Correlation, Arena Group Hype Analysis, Arena Group Volatility, Arena Group History as well as Arena Group Performance. Note that the Arena Group Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arena Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.

Complementary Tools for Arena Stock analysis

When running Arena Group Holdings price analysis, check to measure Arena Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arena Group is operating at the current time. Most of Arena Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arena Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arena Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arena Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Go
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Go
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Go
Stock Screener
Find equities using custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Go
Bond Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Go
Efficient Frontier
Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market.
Go
Is Arena Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arena Group. If investors know Arena will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arena Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
243.9 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.12
Return On Assets
(0.23) 
The market value of Arena Group Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arena that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arena Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arena Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arena Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arena Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arena Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Arena Group value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arena Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.