Blue Apron Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 14.0

APRN -  USA Stock  

USD 3.48  0.30  9.43%

Blue Apron's future price is the expected price of Blue Apron instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Blue Apron Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The Price to Book Value is projected to slide to 1.90. The value of Price to Earnings Ratio is estimated to slide to -1.83.
  
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Blue Apron's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Blue Apron Holdings. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Blue Apron based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Blue Apron Holdings over a specific time period. For example, 2022-05-20 CALL at $3.0 is a CALL option contract on Blue Apron's common stock with a strick price of 3.0 expiring on 2022-05-20. The contract was last traded on 2022-05-19 at 15:45:28 for $0.23 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.2, and an ask price of $0.25. The implied volatility as of the 20th of May is 184.4963. View All Blue Apron options

Closest to current price Blue Apron long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Blue Apron Backtesting, Blue Apron Valuation, Blue Apron Correlation, Blue Apron Hype Analysis, Blue Apron Volatility, Blue Apron History as well as Blue Apron Performance. Please specify Blue Apron time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Blue Apron odds to be computed.
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Blue Apron Target Price Odds to finish over 14.0

The tendency of Blue Apron Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 14.00  or more in 90 days
 3.48 90 days 14.00  close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Blue Apron to move over $ 14.00  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Blue Apron Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Blue Apron Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Blue Apron Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 3.48  and $ 14.00  at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.42 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.2 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Blue Apron will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Blue Apron Holdings is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Blue Apron Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Blue Apron

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blue Apron Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blue Apron's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Blue Apron in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.153.0810.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.295.8713.01
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.073.2810.42
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.0014.0014.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Blue Apron. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Blue Apron's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Blue Apron's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Blue Apron Holdings.

Blue Apron Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Blue Apron is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Blue Apron's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Blue Apron Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Blue Apron within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.58
β
Beta against DOW1.20
σ
Overall volatility
0.85
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Blue Apron Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Blue Apron for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Blue Apron Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Blue Apron Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Blue Apron Holdings has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company currently holds 65.9 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.94, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Blue Apron Holdings has a current ratio of 0.9, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Blue Apron until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Blue Apron's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Blue Apron Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Blue Apron to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Blue Apron's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 478.83 M. Net Loss for the year was (73.81 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 177.68 M.
Blue Apron Holdings currently holds about 35.28 M in cash with (28.72 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.47.
Blue Apron Holdings has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 43.0% of Blue Apron shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Catalyst watch Rivian lockup expires, Western Digital event and inflation prints - Seeking Alpha

Blue Apron Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Blue Apron Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Blue Apron's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Blue Apron's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out7.92%
Short Percent Of Float8.49%
Float Shares14.86M
Shares Short Prior Month1.79M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day8.45M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.05M
Date Short Interest15th of December 2021

Blue Apron Technical Analysis

Blue Apron's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Blue Apron Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Blue Apron Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Blue Apron Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Blue Apron Predictive Forecast Models

Blue Apron time-series forecasting models is one of many Blue Apron's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Blue Apron's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Blue Apron Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about Blue Apron for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Blue Apron Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Blue Apron Alerts

Blue Apron Alerts and Suggestions

Blue Apron Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Blue Apron Holdings has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company currently holds 65.9 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.94, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Blue Apron Holdings has a current ratio of 0.9, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Blue Apron until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Blue Apron's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Blue Apron Holdings sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Blue Apron to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Blue Apron's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 478.83 M. Net Loss for the year was (73.81 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 177.68 M.
Blue Apron Holdings currently holds about 35.28 M in cash with (28.72 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.47.
Blue Apron Holdings has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 43.0% of Blue Apron shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: Catalyst watch Rivian lockup expires, Western Digital event and inflation prints - Seeking Alpha
Please continue to Blue Apron Backtesting, Blue Apron Valuation, Blue Apron Correlation, Blue Apron Hype Analysis, Blue Apron Volatility, Blue Apron History as well as Blue Apron Performance. Note that the Blue Apron Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Blue Apron's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

Complementary Tools for Blue Apron Stock analysis

When running Blue Apron Holdings price analysis, check to measure Blue Apron's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blue Apron is operating at the current time. Most of Blue Apron's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blue Apron's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blue Apron's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blue Apron to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Blue Apron's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blue Apron. If investors know Blue Apron will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blue Apron listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Blue Apron Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blue Apron that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blue Apron's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blue Apron's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blue Apron's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blue Apron's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blue Apron's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Blue Apron value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blue Apron's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.