Appian Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 38.16

APPN
 Stock
  

USD 38.16  0.13  0.34%   

Appian Corp's future price is the expected price of Appian Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Appian Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Appian Corp Price to Book Value is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current Price to Book Value is estimated at 21.86. Price to Sales Ratio is expected to rise to 15.29 this year, although the value of Price to Earnings Ratio will most likely fall to (56.29) .
  
Appian Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Appian Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Appian Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Appian Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $40.0 is a CALL option contract on Appian Corp's common stock with a strick price of 40.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-30 at 15:32:25 for $1.2 and, as of today, has 15 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.05, and an ask price of $1.25. The implied volatility as of the 1st of December is 63.8544. View All Appian options

Closest to current price Appian long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Appian Corp Backtesting, Appian Corp Valuation, Appian Corp Correlation, Appian Corp Hype Analysis, Appian Corp Volatility, Appian Corp History as well as Appian Corp Performance. Please specify Appian Corp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Appian Corp odds to be computed.

Appian Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 38.16

The tendency of Appian Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 38.16 90 days 38.16 
about 86.42
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Appian Corp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 86.42 (This Appian Corp probability density function shows the probability of Appian Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.36 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Appian Corp will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Appian Corp is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Appian Corp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Appian Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Appian Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Appian Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Appian Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
33.9538.3542.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
34.5552.0856.48
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
38.5442.9547.35
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
47.0096.28170.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Appian Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Appian Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Appian Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Appian Corp.

Appian Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Appian Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Appian Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Appian Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Appian Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.29
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.36
σ
Overall volatility
4.02
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Appian Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Appian Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Appian Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Appian Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Appian Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 369.26 M. Net Loss for the year was (88.64 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 265.17 M.
Appian Corp currently holds about 92.69 M in cash with (53.92 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.28.
Appian Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Business News insidenova.com - Inside NoVA

Appian Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Appian Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Appian Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Appian Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding69050565.00
Cash And Short Term Investments155975000.00

Appian Corp Technical Analysis

Appian Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Appian Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Appian Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Appian Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Appian Corp Predictive Forecast Models

Appian Corp time-series forecasting models is one of many Appian Corp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Appian Corp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Appian Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Appian Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Appian Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Appian Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Appian Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 369.26 M. Net Loss for the year was (88.64 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 265.17 M.
Appian Corp currently holds about 92.69 M in cash with (53.92 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.28.
Appian Corp has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Business News insidenova.com - Inside NoVA
Please continue to Appian Corp Backtesting, Appian Corp Valuation, Appian Corp Correlation, Appian Corp Hype Analysis, Appian Corp Volatility, Appian Corp History as well as Appian Corp Performance. You can also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Appian Corp price analysis, check to measure Appian Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Appian Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Appian Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Appian Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Appian Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Appian Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Appian Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Appian Corp. If investors know Appian will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Appian Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
2.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.28
Return On Assets
(0.17) 
Return On Equity
(0.66) 
The market value of Appian Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Appian that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Appian Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Appian Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Appian Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Appian Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Appian Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Appian Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Appian Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.