Apellis Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 50.63

APLS
 Stock
  

USD 50.63  0.84  1.69%   

Apellis Pharmaceuticals' future price is the expected price of Apellis Pharmaceuticals instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Apellis Pharmaceuticals performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 12/03/2022, Price to Book Value is likely to grow to 23.79, while Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop (5.77) .
  
Apellis Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Apellis Pharmaceuticals. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Apellis Pharmaceuticals based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Apellis Pharmaceuticals over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $50.0 is a CALL option contract on Apellis Pharmaceuticals' common stock with a strick price of 50.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-02 at 10:54:48 for $3.4 and, as of today, has 13 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.45, and an ask price of $3.3. The implied volatility as of the 3rd of December is 66.3614. View All Apellis options

Closest to current price Apellis long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Apellis Pharmaceuticals Backtesting, Apellis Pharmaceuticals Valuation, Apellis Pharmaceuticals Correlation, Apellis Pharmaceuticals Hype Analysis, Apellis Pharmaceuticals Volatility, Apellis Pharmaceuticals History as well as Apellis Pharmaceuticals Performance. Please specify Apellis Pharmaceuticals time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apellis Pharmaceuticals odds to be computed.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish over 50.63

The tendency of Apellis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 50.63 90 days 50.63 
about 83.05
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Apellis Pharmaceuticals to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 83.05 (This Apellis Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of Apellis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Apellis Pharmaceuticals has a beta of 0.41. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Apellis Pharmaceuticals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Apellis Pharmaceuticals will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Apellis Pharmaceuticals is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Apellis Pharmaceuticals Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Apellis Pharmaceuticals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Apellis Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Apellis Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Apellis Pharmaceuticals in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
45.8850.1254.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
45.5755.7159.95
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
28.0069.14112.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (9)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-8.83-8.45-7.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Apellis Pharmaceuticals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Apellis Pharmaceuticals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Apellis Pharmaceuticals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Apellis Pharmaceuticals.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Apellis Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Apellis Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Apellis Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Apellis Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.22
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.41
σ
Overall volatility
6.83
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Apellis Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Apellis Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Apellis Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 66.56 M. Net Loss for the year was (746.35 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (253.92 M).
Apellis Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 852.8 M in cash with (563.13 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.76.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Four Stocks to Play the Future of Healthcare Innovation - Barrons

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Apellis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Apellis Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Apellis Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding75163000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments700550000.00

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Apellis Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Apellis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Apellis Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Apellis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models

Apellis Pharmaceuticals time-series forecasting models is one of many Apellis Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Apellis Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Apellis Pharmaceuticals

Checking the ongoing alerts about Apellis Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Apellis Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Apellis Pharmaceuticals has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 66.56 M. Net Loss for the year was (746.35 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (253.92 M).
Apellis Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 852.8 M in cash with (563.13 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.76.
Apellis Pharmaceuticals has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Four Stocks to Play the Future of Healthcare Innovation - Barrons

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Apellis Pharmaceuticals price analysis, check to measure Apellis Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Apellis Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Apellis Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Apellis Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Apellis Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Apellis Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Apellis Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Apellis Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Apellis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Apellis Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
5.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
2.9
Return On Assets
(0.46) 
Return On Equity
(5.07) 
The market value of Apellis Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Apellis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Apellis Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Apellis Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Apellis Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Apellis Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Apellis Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Apellis Pharmaceuticals value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Apellis Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.