Abercrombie Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 23.71

ANF
 Stock
  

USD 23.71  0.48  2.07%   

Abercrombie Fitch's future price is the expected price of Abercrombie Fitch instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Abercrombie Fitch performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 23.01, whereas Price to Book Value is forecasted to decline to 1.98.
  
Abercrombie Fitch's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Abercrombie Fitch. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Abercrombie Fitch based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Abercrombie Fitch over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-09 CALL at $24.0 is a CALL option contract on Abercrombie Fitch's common stock with a strick price of 24.0 expiring on 2022-12-09. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-06 at 12:47:04 for $0.2 and, as of today, has 2 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.1, and an ask price of $0.2. The implied volatility as of the 7th of December is 85.7647. View All Abercrombie options

Closest to current price Abercrombie long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Abercrombie Fitch Backtesting, Abercrombie Fitch Valuation, Abercrombie Fitch Correlation, Abercrombie Fitch Hype Analysis, Abercrombie Fitch Volatility, Abercrombie Fitch History as well as Abercrombie Fitch Performance. Please specify Abercrombie Fitch time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Abercrombie Fitch odds to be computed.

Abercrombie Fitch Target Price Odds to finish over 23.71

The tendency of Abercrombie Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 23.71 90 days 23.71 
about 1.48
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Abercrombie Fitch to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 1.48 (This Abercrombie Fitch probability density function shows the probability of Abercrombie Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.63 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Abercrombie Fitch will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.5707, implying that it can generate a 0.57 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Abercrombie Fitch Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Abercrombie Fitch

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Abercrombie Fitch. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Abercrombie Fitch's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Abercrombie Fitch in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
19.9524.3028.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
21.3630.2434.59
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
19.6123.9628.32
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
18.0038.6254.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Abercrombie Fitch. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Abercrombie Fitch's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Abercrombie Fitch's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Abercrombie Fitch.

Abercrombie Fitch Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Abercrombie Fitch is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Abercrombie Fitch's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Abercrombie Fitch, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Abercrombie Fitch within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.57
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.63
σ
Overall volatility
2.73
Ir
Information ratio 0.14

Abercrombie Fitch Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Abercrombie Fitch for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Abercrombie Fitch can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Abercrombie Fitch appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: ABERCROMBIE FITCH CO DE Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Marketscreener.com

Abercrombie Fitch Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Abercrombie Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Abercrombie Fitch's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Abercrombie Fitch's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding62636000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments823139000.00

Abercrombie Fitch Technical Analysis

Abercrombie Fitch's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Abercrombie Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Abercrombie Fitch. In general, you should focus on analyzing Abercrombie Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Abercrombie Fitch Predictive Forecast Models

Abercrombie Fitch time-series forecasting models is one of many Abercrombie Fitch's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Abercrombie Fitch's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Abercrombie Fitch

Checking the ongoing alerts about Abercrombie Fitch for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Abercrombie Fitch help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Abercrombie Fitch appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
Over 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: ABERCROMBIE FITCH CO DE Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Marketscreener.com
Please continue to Abercrombie Fitch Backtesting, Abercrombie Fitch Valuation, Abercrombie Fitch Correlation, Abercrombie Fitch Hype Analysis, Abercrombie Fitch Volatility, Abercrombie Fitch History as well as Abercrombie Fitch Performance. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

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When running Abercrombie Fitch price analysis, check to measure Abercrombie Fitch's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Abercrombie Fitch is operating at the current time. Most of Abercrombie Fitch's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Abercrombie Fitch's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Abercrombie Fitch's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Abercrombie Fitch to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Abercrombie Fitch's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Abercrombie Fitch. If investors know Abercrombie will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Abercrombie Fitch listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.13) 
Market Capitalization
1.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.028) 
Return On Assets
0.0194
Return On Equity
0.0477
The market value of Abercrombie Fitch is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Abercrombie that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Abercrombie Fitch's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Abercrombie Fitch's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Abercrombie Fitch's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Abercrombie Fitch's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Abercrombie Fitch's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Abercrombie Fitch value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Abercrombie Fitch's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.