Amazon Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3720.0

AMZN -  USA Stock  

USD 3,390  47.57  1.38%

Amazon's future price is the expected price of Amazon instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Amazon Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Amazon Price to Book Value is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current Price to Book Value is estimated at 18.66. Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to rise to 82.41 this year, although the value of Price to Sales Ratio will most likely fall to 3.76.

Amazon Price Probability 

 
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Amazon's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Amazon Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Amazon based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Amazon Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2021-12-03 CALL at $3390.0 is a CALL option contract on Amazon's common stock with a strick price of 3390.0 expiring on 2021-12-03. The contract was last traded on 2021-12-02 at 15:14:36 for $51.7 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $54.35, and an ask price of $62.7. The implied volatility as of the 3rd of December is 40.5002. View All Amazon options

Closest to current price Amazon long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Amazon Backtesting, Amazon Valuation, Amazon Correlation, Amazon Hype Analysis, Amazon Volatility, Amazon History as well as Amazon Performance. Please specify Amazon time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Amazon odds to be computed.
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Amazon Target Price Odds to finish over 3720.0

The tendency of Amazon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for foresting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 3,720  or more in 90 days
 3,390 90 days 3,720  near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Amazon to move over $ 3,720  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Amazon Inc probability density function shows the probability of Amazon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Amazon Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 3,390  and $ 3,720  at the end of the 90-day period is about 63.2 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Amazon has a beta of 0.81. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Amazon average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Amazon Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0169, implying that it can generate a 0.0169 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Amazon Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Amazon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amazon Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amazon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amazon in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
3,3733,3743,376
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3,0373,7673,769
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
3,3323,3333,335
Details
31 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
3,8004,1265,000
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amazon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amazon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amazon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amazon Inc.

Amazon Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Amazon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Amazon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Amazon Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Amazon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.016938
β
Beta against DOW0.81
σ
Overall volatility
108.63
Ir
Information ratio 0.016186

Amazon Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Amazon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Amazon Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Amazon Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Amazon Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Bona fide gift to Judith McGrath of tradable shares of Amazon subject to Section 16

Amazon Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Amazon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Amazon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amazon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.98%
Short Percent Of Float1.14%
Float Shares454.35M
Shares Short Prior Month4.92M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.49M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month3.21M
Date Short Interest30th of September 2021

Amazon Technical Analysis

Amazon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Amazon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Amazon Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Amazon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Amazon Predictive Forecast Models

Amazon time-series forecasting models is one of many Amazon's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Amazon's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Amazon Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Amazon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Amazon Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Amazon Alerts

Amazon Alerts and Suggestions

Amazon Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Amazon Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Bona fide gift to Judith McGrath of tradable shares of Amazon subject to Section 16
Please continue to Amazon Backtesting, Amazon Valuation, Amazon Correlation, Amazon Hype Analysis, Amazon Volatility, Amazon History as well as Amazon Performance. Note that the Amazon Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amazon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

Complementary Tools for Amazon Stock analysis

When running Amazon Inc price analysis, check to measure Amazon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amazon is operating at the current time. Most of Amazon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amazon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amazon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amazon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Amazon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amazon. If investors know Amazon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amazon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Amazon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amazon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amazon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amazon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amazon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amazon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amazon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Amazon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amazon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.