Affiliated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 156.88

AMG
 Stock
  

USD 156.88  0.14  0.09%   

Affiliated Managers' future price is the expected price of Affiliated Managers instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Affiliated Managers Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 2.45. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 12.37.
  
Affiliated Managers' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Affiliated Managers Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Affiliated Managers based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Affiliated Managers Group over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $155.0 is a CALL option contract on Affiliated Managers' common stock with a strick price of 155.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-25 at 12:13:16 for $5.5 and, as of today, has 20 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.5, and an ask price of $6.2. The implied volatility as of the 26th of November is 29.6292. View All Affiliated options

Closest to current price Affiliated long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Affiliated Managers Backtesting, Affiliated Managers Valuation, Affiliated Managers Correlation, Affiliated Managers Hype Analysis, Affiliated Managers Volatility, Affiliated Managers History as well as Affiliated Managers Performance. Please specify Affiliated Managers time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Affiliated Managers odds to be computed.

Affiliated Managers Target Price Odds to finish over 156.88

The tendency of Affiliated Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 156.88 90 days 156.88 
roughly 2.01
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Affiliated Managers to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 2.01 (This Affiliated Managers Group probability density function shows the probability of Affiliated Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.54 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Affiliated Managers will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1816, implying that it can generate a 0.18 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Affiliated Managers Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Affiliated Managers

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Affiliated Managers. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Affiliated Managers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Affiliated Managers in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
153.28156.09158.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
141.19190.04192.85
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
152.45155.25158.06
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
184.00208.40246.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Affiliated Managers. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Affiliated Managers' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Affiliated Managers' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Affiliated Managers.

Affiliated Managers Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Affiliated Managers is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Affiliated Managers' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Affiliated Managers Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Affiliated Managers within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.18
β
Beta against DOW1.54
σ
Overall volatility
13.74
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

Affiliated Managers Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Affiliated Managers for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Affiliated Managers can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Affiliated Managers has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: Buy These Quality Baby Bonds From Affiliated Managers Group Now - Seeking Alpha

Affiliated Managers Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Affiliated Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Affiliated Managers' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Affiliated Managers' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.16%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.04
Short Percent Of Float2.58%
Float Shares37.78M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day331.34k
Shares Short Prior Month833.21k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month287.17k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.03%

Affiliated Managers Technical Analysis

Affiliated Managers' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Affiliated Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Affiliated Managers Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Affiliated Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Affiliated Managers Predictive Forecast Models

Affiliated Managers time-series forecasting models is one of many Affiliated Managers' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Affiliated Managers' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Affiliated Managers

Checking the ongoing alerts about Affiliated Managers for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Affiliated Managers help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Affiliated Managers has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: Buy These Quality Baby Bonds From Affiliated Managers Group Now - Seeking Alpha
Please continue to Affiliated Managers Backtesting, Affiliated Managers Valuation, Affiliated Managers Correlation, Affiliated Managers Hype Analysis, Affiliated Managers Volatility, Affiliated Managers History as well as Affiliated Managers Performance. You can also try Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Affiliated Managers price analysis, check to measure Affiliated Managers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Affiliated Managers is operating at the current time. Most of Affiliated Managers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Affiliated Managers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Affiliated Managers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Affiliated Managers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Affiliated Managers' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Affiliated Managers. If investors know Affiliated will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Affiliated Managers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.07) 
Market Capitalization
5.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.006
Return On Assets
0.0692
Return On Equity
0.21
The market value of Affiliated Managers is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Affiliated that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Affiliated Managers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Affiliated Managers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Affiliated Managers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Affiliated Managers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Affiliated Managers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Affiliated Managers value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Affiliated Managers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.