Allovir Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 7.17

ALVR
 Stock
  

USD 7.17  0.16  2.28%   

Allovir's future price is the expected price of Allovir instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Allovir performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Allovir's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Allovir. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Allovir based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Allovir over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $7.5 is a CALL option contract on Allovir's common stock with a strick price of 7.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-28 at 15:22:33 for $0.55 and, as of today, has 17 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.2, and an ask price of $0.55. The implied volatility as of the 29th of November is 122.9602. View All Allovir options

Closest to current price Allovir long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Allovir Backtesting, Allovir Valuation, Allovir Correlation, Allovir Hype Analysis, Allovir Volatility, Allovir History as well as Allovir Performance. Please specify Allovir time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Allovir odds to be computed.

Allovir Target Price Odds to finish over 7.17

The tendency of Allovir Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 7.17 90 days 7.17 
about 82.28
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Allovir to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 82.28 (This Allovir probability density function shows the probability of Allovir Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.5 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Allovir will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Allovir is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Allovir Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Allovir

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allovir. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allovir's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Allovir in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1.727.0512.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
6.3515.7621.09
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
1.717.0312.36
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
32.0042.7555.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Allovir. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Allovir's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Allovir's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Allovir.

Allovir Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Allovir is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Allovir's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Allovir, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Allovir within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.11
β
Beta against DOW1.50
σ
Overall volatility
0.81
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

Allovir Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Allovir for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Allovir can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Allovir has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Net Loss for the year was (191.95 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 165 K.
Allovir currently holds about 172.67 M in cash with (139.86 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.91.
Roughly 50.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Sale by Van Beek Jeroen B of 16074 shares of Allovir

Allovir Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Allovir Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Allovir's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allovir's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.91%
Short Percent Of Float12.12%
Float Shares30.94M
Shares Short Prior Month4.3M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day279.94k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month349.15k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022

Allovir Technical Analysis

Allovir's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Allovir Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Allovir. In general, you should focus on analyzing Allovir Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Allovir Predictive Forecast Models

Allovir time-series forecasting models is one of many Allovir's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Allovir's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Allovir

Checking the ongoing alerts about Allovir for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Allovir help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Allovir has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Net Loss for the year was (191.95 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 165 K.
Allovir currently holds about 172.67 M in cash with (139.86 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.91.
Roughly 50.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Sale by Van Beek Jeroen B of 16074 shares of Allovir
Please continue to Allovir Backtesting, Allovir Valuation, Allovir Correlation, Allovir Hype Analysis, Allovir Volatility, Allovir History as well as Allovir Performance. You can also try Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Allovir price analysis, check to measure Allovir's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allovir is operating at the current time. Most of Allovir's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allovir's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allovir's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allovir to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Allovir's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allovir. If investors know Allovir will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allovir listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
683.8 M
Return On Assets
(0.38) 
Return On Equity
(0.72) 
The market value of Allovir is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allovir that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allovir's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allovir's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allovir's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allovir's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allovir's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Allovir value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allovir's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.