Altimmune Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 11.28

ALT
 Stock
  

USD 11.28  0.49  4.54%   

Altimmune's future price is the expected price of Altimmune instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Altimmune performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Altimmune Price to Book Value is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Altimmune reported Price to Book Value of 1.83 in 2021. Price to Sales Ratio is likely to gain to 92.51 in 2022, whereas Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop (4.20)  in 2022.
  
Altimmune's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Altimmune. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Altimmune based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Altimmune over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $11.0 is a CALL option contract on Altimmune's common stock with a strick price of 11.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-02 at 15:32:03 for $1.52 and, as of today, has 13 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.3, and an ask price of $1.65. The implied volatility as of the 3rd of December is 163.813. View All Altimmune options

Closest to current price Altimmune long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Altimmune Backtesting, Altimmune Valuation, Altimmune Correlation, Altimmune Hype Analysis, Altimmune Volatility, Altimmune History as well as Altimmune Performance. Please specify Altimmune time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Altimmune odds to be computed.

Altimmune Target Price Odds to finish over 11.28

The tendency of Altimmune Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 11.28 90 days 11.28 
about 63.88
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Altimmune to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 63.88 (This Altimmune probability density function shows the probability of Altimmune Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.7 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Altimmune will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Altimmune is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Altimmune Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Altimmune

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Altimmune. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Altimmune's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Altimmune in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
3.449.5115.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.9214.9921.06
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
25.0030.5036.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-2.48-2.18-1.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Altimmune. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Altimmune's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Altimmune's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Altimmune.

Altimmune Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Altimmune is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Altimmune's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Altimmune, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Altimmune within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-1
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.70
σ
Overall volatility
3.63
Ir
Information ratio -0.16

Altimmune Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Altimmune for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Altimmune can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Altimmune generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Altimmune has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.41 K. Reported Net Loss for the year was (97.09 K) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (71.09 M).
Altimmune has about 184.76 M in cash with (78.24 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.81.
Altimmune has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Altimmune Weight Loss Data Signals A Costly Confusion - Seeking Alpha

Altimmune Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Altimmune Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Altimmune's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Altimmune's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding25637023.00
Cash And Short Term Investments190300776.00

Altimmune Technical Analysis

Altimmune's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Altimmune Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Altimmune. In general, you should focus on analyzing Altimmune Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Altimmune Predictive Forecast Models

Altimmune time-series forecasting models is one of many Altimmune's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Altimmune's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Altimmune

Checking the ongoing alerts about Altimmune for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Altimmune help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Altimmune generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Altimmune has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.41 K. Reported Net Loss for the year was (97.09 K) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (71.09 M).
Altimmune has about 184.76 M in cash with (78.24 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.81.
Altimmune has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Altimmune Weight Loss Data Signals A Costly Confusion - Seeking Alpha
Please continue to Altimmune Backtesting, Altimmune Valuation, Altimmune Correlation, Altimmune Hype Analysis, Altimmune Volatility, Altimmune History as well as Altimmune Performance. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

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When running Altimmune price analysis, check to measure Altimmune's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Altimmune is operating at the current time. Most of Altimmune's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Altimmune's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Altimmune's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Altimmune to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Altimmune's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Altimmune. If investors know Altimmune will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Altimmune listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
525.5 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.99) 
Return On Assets
(0.23) 
Return On Equity
(0.42) 
The market value of Altimmune is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Altimmune that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Altimmune's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Altimmune's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Altimmune's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Altimmune's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Altimmune's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Altimmune value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Altimmune's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.