Ally Financial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 26.12

ALLY
 Stock
  

USD 26.12  0.20  0.77%   

Ally Financial's future price is the expected price of Ally Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ally Financial performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Ally Financial Price to Book Value is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Ally Financial reported Price to Book Value of 0.97 in 2021. Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to rise to 7.49 in 2022, whereas Price to Sales Ratio is likely to drop 1.94 in 2022.
  
Ally Financial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Ally Financial. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Ally Financial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Ally Financial over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $26.0 is a CALL option contract on Ally Financial's common stock with a strick price of 26.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-02 at 15:55:14 for $0.9 and, as of today, has 12 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.85, and an ask price of $0.95. The implied volatility as of the 4th of December is 42.9625. View All Ally Financial options

Closest to current price Ally Financial long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Ally Financial Backtesting, Ally Financial Valuation, Ally Financial Correlation, Ally Financial Hype Analysis, Ally Financial Volatility, Ally Financial History as well as Ally Financial Performance. Please specify Ally Financial time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ally Financial odds to be computed.

Ally Financial Target Price Odds to finish over 26.12

The tendency of Ally Financial Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 26.12 90 days 26.12 
about 84.52
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ally Financial to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 84.52 (This Ally Financial probability density function shows the probability of Ally Financial Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.81 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ally Financial will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Ally Financial is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Ally Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ally Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ally Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ally Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ally Financial in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
22.4425.8929.34
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
23.5135.1438.59
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
53.0066.3681.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
8.428.598.81
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ally Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ally Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ally Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ally Financial.

Ally Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ally Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ally Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ally Financial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ally Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.48
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.81
σ
Overall volatility
2.47
Ir
Information ratio -0.12

Ally Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ally Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ally Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ally Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ally Financial has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Ally Financial has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company currently holds 17.03 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 275.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ally Financial has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Ally Financial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Ally Financial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Ally Financial sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Ally Financial to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Ally Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 95.0% of Ally Financial shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of November 2022 Ally Financial paid $ 0.3 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: 3 Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist in December - The Motley Fool

Ally Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ally Financial Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ally Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ally Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding365180000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments38446000000.00

Ally Financial Technical Analysis

Ally Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ally Financial Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ally Financial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ally Financial Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ally Financial Predictive Forecast Models

Ally Financial time-series forecasting models is one of many Ally Financial's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Ally Financial's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ally Financial

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ally Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ally Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ally Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ally Financial has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Ally Financial has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations
The company currently holds 17.03 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 275.8, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Ally Financial has a current ratio of 0.83, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Ally Financial until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Ally Financial's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Ally Financial sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Ally Financial to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Ally Financial's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Over 95.0% of Ally Financial shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of November 2022 Ally Financial paid $ 0.3 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: 3 Warren Buffett Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist in December - The Motley Fool

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Ally Financial price analysis, check to measure Ally Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ally Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Ally Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ally Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ally Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ally Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ally Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ally Financial. If investors know Ally Financial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ally Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.54) 
Market Capitalization
7.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.14) 
Return On Assets
0.0114
Return On Equity
0.14
The market value of Ally Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ally Financial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ally Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ally Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ally Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ally Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ally Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ally Financial value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ally Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.