Alignment Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 12.35

ALHC
 Stock
  

USD 12.35  0.27  2.24%   

Alignment Healthcare's future price is the expected price of Alignment Healthcare instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Alignment Healthcare performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Alignment Healthcare's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Alignment Healthcare. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Alignment Healthcare based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Alignment Healthcare over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on Alignment Healthcare's common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-16 at 12:38:05 for $1.49 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.75, and an ask price of $0.9. The implied volatility as of the 29th of September is 73.0519. View All Alignment options

Closest to current price Alignment long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Alignment Healthcare Backtesting, Alignment Healthcare Valuation, Alignment Healthcare Correlation, Alignment Healthcare Hype Analysis, Alignment Healthcare Volatility, Alignment Healthcare History as well as Alignment Healthcare Performance. Please specify Alignment Healthcare time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alignment Healthcare odds to be computed.

Alignment Healthcare Target Price Odds to finish over 12.35

The tendency of Alignment Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 12.35 90 days 12.35 
about 90.47
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alignment Healthcare to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 90.47 (This Alignment Healthcare probability density function shows the probability of Alignment Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Alignment Healthcare has a beta of 0.77. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alignment Healthcare average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alignment Healthcare will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.2259, implying that it can generate a 0.23 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Alignment Healthcare Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Alignment Healthcare

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alignment Healthcare. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alignment Healthcare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alignment Healthcare in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
7.9612.2816.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.9615.2819.60
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
5.9310.2514.57
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
18.0022.8628.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alignment Healthcare. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alignment Healthcare's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alignment Healthcare's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alignment Healthcare.

Alignment Healthcare Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alignment Healthcare is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alignment Healthcare's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alignment Healthcare, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alignment Healthcare within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.23
β
Beta against DOW0.77
σ
Overall volatility
1.62
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Alignment Healthcare Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alignment Healthcare for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alignment Healthcare can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Alignment Healthcare has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.25 B. Net Loss for the year was (179.23 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 128.73 M.
Alignment Healthcare currently holds about 448.84 M in cash with (52.31 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.4.
Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Tabula Rasa HealthCare, Inc.s latest 15 percent decline adds to one-year losses, institutional investors may consider drastic measures - Simply Wall St

Alignment Healthcare Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alignment Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alignment Healthcare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alignment Healthcare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.48%
Short Percent Of Float3.26%
Float Shares82.65M
Shares Short Prior Month3.3M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.77M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month783.14k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

Alignment Healthcare Technical Analysis

Alignment Healthcare's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alignment Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alignment Healthcare. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alignment Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Alignment Healthcare Predictive Forecast Models

Alignment Healthcare time-series forecasting models is one of many Alignment Healthcare's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Alignment Healthcare's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Alignment Healthcare

Checking the ongoing alerts about Alignment Healthcare for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alignment Healthcare help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Alignment Healthcare has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.25 B. Net Loss for the year was (179.23 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 128.73 M.
Alignment Healthcare currently holds about 448.84 M in cash with (52.31 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.4.
Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Tabula Rasa HealthCare, Inc.s latest 15 percent decline adds to one-year losses, institutional investors may consider drastic measures - Simply Wall St
Please continue to Alignment Healthcare Backtesting, Alignment Healthcare Valuation, Alignment Healthcare Correlation, Alignment Healthcare Hype Analysis, Alignment Healthcare Volatility, Alignment Healthcare History as well as Alignment Healthcare Performance. Note that the Alignment Healthcare information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alignment Healthcare's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

Complementary Tools for Alignment Stock analysis

When running Alignment Healthcare price analysis, check to measure Alignment Healthcare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alignment Healthcare is operating at the current time. Most of Alignment Healthcare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alignment Healthcare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alignment Healthcare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alignment Healthcare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alignment Healthcare's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alignment Healthcare. If investors know Alignment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alignment Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alignment Healthcare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alignment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alignment Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alignment Healthcare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alignment Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alignment Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alignment Healthcare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alignment Healthcare value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alignment Healthcare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.