Acadia Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.38

AKR
 Stock
  

USD 15.38  0.18  1.18%   

Acadia Realty's future price is the expected price of Acadia Realty instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Acadia Realty Trust performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 11/30/2022, Price to Book Value is likely to grow to 1.36. Also, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 90.59.
  
Acadia Realty's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Acadia Realty Trust. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Acadia Realty based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Acadia Realty Trust over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $12.5 is a CALL option contract on Acadia Realty's common stock with a strick price of 12.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 16 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.9, and an ask price of $4.1. The implied volatility as of the 30th of November is 104.8553. View All Acadia options

Closest to current price Acadia long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Acadia Realty Backtesting, Acadia Realty Valuation, Acadia Realty Correlation, Acadia Realty Hype Analysis, Acadia Realty Volatility, Acadia Realty History as well as Acadia Realty Performance. Please specify Acadia Realty time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Acadia Realty odds to be computed.

Acadia Realty Target Price Odds to finish over 15.38

The tendency of Acadia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 15.38 90 days 15.38 
about 16.71
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Acadia Realty to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 16.71 (This Acadia Realty Trust probability density function shows the probability of Acadia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.41 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Acadia Realty will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Acadia Realty Trust is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Acadia Realty Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Acadia Realty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Acadia Realty Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Acadia Realty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Acadia Realty in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
12.8315.4017.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.8419.7422.31
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
12.8815.4518.02
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
23.0024.6026.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Acadia Realty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Acadia Realty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Acadia Realty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Acadia Realty Trust.

Acadia Realty Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Acadia Realty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Acadia Realty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Acadia Realty Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Acadia Realty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.19
β
Beta against DOW1.41
σ
Overall volatility
1.16
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Acadia Realty Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Acadia Realty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Acadia Realty Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Acadia Realty Trust generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Acadia Realty Trust has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
On 14th of October 2022 Acadia Realty paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Acadia Realty Trust Board Member Trades Companys Stock - Acadia Realty Trust - Benzinga

Acadia Realty Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Acadia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Acadia Realty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Acadia Realty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.45%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.15
Short Percent Of Float4.47%
Float Shares94.26M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day665.46k
Shares Short Prior Month2.1M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month637.65k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.00%

Acadia Realty Technical Analysis

Acadia Realty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Acadia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Acadia Realty Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Acadia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Acadia Realty Predictive Forecast Models

Acadia Realty time-series forecasting models is one of many Acadia Realty's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Acadia Realty's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Acadia Realty Trust

Checking the ongoing alerts about Acadia Realty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Acadia Realty Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Acadia Realty Trust generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Acadia Realty Trust has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
On 14th of October 2022 Acadia Realty paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Acadia Realty Trust Board Member Trades Companys Stock - Acadia Realty Trust - Benzinga
Please continue to Acadia Realty Backtesting, Acadia Realty Valuation, Acadia Realty Correlation, Acadia Realty Hype Analysis, Acadia Realty Volatility, Acadia Realty History as well as Acadia Realty Performance. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Acadia Realty Trust price analysis, check to measure Acadia Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Acadia Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Acadia Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Acadia Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Acadia Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Acadia Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Acadia Realty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Acadia Realty. If investors know Acadia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Acadia Realty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
2.57
Market Capitalization
1.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.59) 
Return On Assets
6.0E-4
Return On Equity
(0.0305) 
The market value of Acadia Realty Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Acadia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Acadia Realty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Acadia Realty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Acadia Realty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Acadia Realty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Acadia Realty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Acadia Realty value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Acadia Realty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.