AKA Brands Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.0216

AKA
 Stock
  

USD 1.43  0.06  4.03%   

AKA Brands' future price is the expected price of AKA Brands instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of AKA Brands Holding performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
AKA Brands' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on AKA Brands Holding. Implied volatility approximates the future value of AKA Brands based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in AKA Brands Holding over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on AKA Brands' common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-28 at 13:53:15 for $0.05 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.05, and an ask price of $0.1. The implied volatility as of the 29th of September is 179.6495. View All AKA Brands options

Closest to current price AKA Brands long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to AKA Brands Backtesting, AKA Brands Valuation, AKA Brands Correlation, AKA Brands Hype Analysis, AKA Brands Volatility, AKA Brands History as well as AKA Brands Performance. Please specify AKA Brands time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like AKA Brands odds to be computed.

AKA Brands Target Price Odds to finish below 0.0216

The tendency of AKA Brands Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 0.0216  or more in 90 days
 1.43 90 days 0.0216 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AKA Brands to drop to $ 0.0216  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This AKA Brands Holding probability density function shows the probability of AKA Brands Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AKA Brands Holding price to stay between $ 0.0216  and its current price of $1.43 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.93 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.67 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, AKA Brands will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. AKA Brands Holding is significantly underperforming DOW.
   AKA Brands Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for AKA Brands

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AKA Brands Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AKA Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AKA Brands in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.081.619.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.244.8913.07
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
0.0316021.589.76
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
10.0015.3822.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AKA Brands. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AKA Brands' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AKA Brands' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AKA Brands Holding.

AKA Brands Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AKA Brands is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AKA Brands' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AKA Brands Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AKA Brands within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.6
β
Beta against DOW1.67
σ
Overall volatility
0.50
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

AKA Brands Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AKA Brands for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AKA Brands Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AKA Brands Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
AKA Brands Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance
AKA Brands Holding may become a speculative penny stock
AKA Brands Holding has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 641.73 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (5.92 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 323.57 M.
AKA Brands Holding has about 41.17 M in cash with (9.91 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.32.
Roughly 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: a.k.a. Brands Holding Will Be Hoping To Turn Its Returns On Capital Around - Nasdaq

AKA Brands Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AKA Brands Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AKA Brands' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AKA Brands' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.66%
Short Percent Of Float7.62%
Float Shares15.89M
Shares Short Prior Month639.15k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day357.09k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month236.1k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022

AKA Brands Technical Analysis

AKA Brands' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AKA Brands Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AKA Brands Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing AKA Brands Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

AKA Brands Predictive Forecast Models

AKA Brands time-series forecasting models is one of many AKA Brands' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary AKA Brands' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about AKA Brands Holding

Checking the ongoing alerts about AKA Brands for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AKA Brands Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
AKA Brands Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
AKA Brands Holding has high historical volatility and very poor performance
AKA Brands Holding may become a speculative penny stock
AKA Brands Holding has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company reported the last year's revenue of 641.73 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (5.92 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 323.57 M.
AKA Brands Holding has about 41.17 M in cash with (9.91 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.32.
Roughly 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from www.nasdaq.com: a.k.a. Brands Holding Will Be Hoping To Turn Its Returns On Capital Around - Nasdaq
Please continue to AKA Brands Backtesting, AKA Brands Valuation, AKA Brands Correlation, AKA Brands Hype Analysis, AKA Brands Volatility, AKA Brands History as well as AKA Brands Performance. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running AKA Brands Holding price analysis, check to measure AKA Brands' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AKA Brands is operating at the current time. Most of AKA Brands' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AKA Brands' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AKA Brands' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AKA Brands to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AKA Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AKA Brands. If investors know AKA Brands will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AKA Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of AKA Brands Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AKA Brands that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AKA Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AKA Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AKA Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AKA Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AKA Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AKA Brands value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AKA Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.