Ashford Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6.44

AHT
 Stock
  

USD 6.44  0.07  1.10%   

Ashford Hospitality's future price is the expected price of Ashford Hospitality instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ashford Hospitality Trust performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Sales Ratio is likely to gain to 0.34 in 2022, whereas Price to Book Value is likely to drop (125.68)  in 2022.
  
Ashford Hospitality's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Ashford Hospitality Trust. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Ashford Hospitality based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Ashford Hospitality Trust over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $7.5 is a CALL option contract on Ashford Hospitality's common stock with a strick price of 7.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-02 at 15:54:49 for $0.08 and, as of today, has 12 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.07, and an ask price of $0.15. The implied volatility as of the 4th of December is 77.6969. View All Ashford options

Closest to current price Ashford long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Ashford Hospitality Backtesting, Ashford Hospitality Valuation, Ashford Hospitality Correlation, Ashford Hospitality Hype Analysis, Ashford Hospitality Volatility, Ashford Hospitality History as well as Ashford Hospitality Performance. Please specify Ashford Hospitality time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Ashford Hospitality odds to be computed.

Ashford Hospitality Target Price Odds to finish over 6.44

The tendency of Ashford Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 6.44 90 days 6.44 
about 84.36
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ashford Hospitality to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 84.36 (This Ashford Hospitality Trust probability density function shows the probability of Ashford Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.8 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ashford Hospitality will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Ashford Hospitality Trust is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Ashford Hospitality Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ashford Hospitality

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ashford Hospitality Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ashford Hospitality's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ashford Hospitality in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
2.336.3710.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
5.7310.9014.94
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
17.0025.0036.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-3.27-2.51-1.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ashford Hospitality. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ashford Hospitality's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ashford Hospitality's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ashford Hospitality Trust.

Ashford Hospitality Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ashford Hospitality is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ashford Hospitality's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ashford Hospitality Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ashford Hospitality within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.63
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.80
σ
Overall volatility
1.06
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

Ashford Hospitality Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ashford Hospitality for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ashford Hospitality Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ashford Hospitality generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ashford Hospitality has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the last year's revenue of 805.41 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (267 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 114.63 M.
Ashford Hospitality Trust has about 592.11 M in cash with (144.19 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 15.91, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Ashford Hospitality has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: Deutsche Bank Adjusts Ashford Hospitality Trust Price Target to 26 From 28, Maintains Buy Rating - Marketscreener.com

Ashford Hospitality Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ashford Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ashford Hospitality's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ashford Hospitality's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding21844000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments3822820000.00

Ashford Hospitality Technical Analysis

Ashford Hospitality's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ashford Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ashford Hospitality Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ashford Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ashford Hospitality Predictive Forecast Models

Ashford Hospitality time-series forecasting models is one of many Ashford Hospitality's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Ashford Hospitality's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ashford Hospitality Trust

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ashford Hospitality for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ashford Hospitality Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ashford Hospitality generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ashford Hospitality has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the last year's revenue of 805.41 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (267 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 114.63 M.
Ashford Hospitality Trust has about 592.11 M in cash with (144.19 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 15.91, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Ashford Hospitality has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Latest headline from news.google.com: Deutsche Bank Adjusts Ashford Hospitality Trust Price Target to 26 From 28, Maintains Buy Rating - Marketscreener.com
Please continue to Ashford Hospitality Backtesting, Ashford Hospitality Valuation, Ashford Hospitality Correlation, Ashford Hospitality Hype Analysis, Ashford Hospitality Volatility, Ashford Hospitality History as well as Ashford Hospitality Performance. Note that the Ashford Hospitality Trust information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ashford Hospitality's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

Complementary Tools for Ashford Stock analysis

When running Ashford Hospitality Trust price analysis, check to measure Ashford Hospitality's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ashford Hospitality is operating at the current time. Most of Ashford Hospitality's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ashford Hospitality's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ashford Hospitality's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ashford Hospitality to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ashford Hospitality's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ashford Hospitality. If investors know Ashford will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ashford Hospitality listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
232.6 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.33
Return On Assets
0.0068
Return On Equity
(22.60) 
The market value of Ashford Hospitality Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ashford that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ashford Hospitality's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ashford Hospitality's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ashford Hospitality's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ashford Hospitality's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ashford Hospitality's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ashford Hospitality value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ashford Hospitality's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.