Adecoagro Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 7.54

AGRO
 Stock
  

USD 7.54  0.28  3.58%   

Adecoagro's future price is the expected price of Adecoagro instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Adecoagro SA performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is expected to rise to 1.02 this year. Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to rise to 6.95 this year.
  
Adecoagro's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Adecoagro SA. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Adecoagro based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Adecoagro SA over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $7.5 is a CALL option contract on Adecoagro's common stock with a strick price of 7.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-06 at 12:59:12 for $0.28 and, as of today, has 9 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.2, and an ask price of $0.3. The implied volatility as of the 7th of December is 55.1877. View All Adecoagro options

Closest to current price Adecoagro long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Adecoagro Backtesting, Adecoagro Valuation, Adecoagro Correlation, Adecoagro Hype Analysis, Adecoagro Volatility, Adecoagro History as well as Adecoagro Performance. Please specify Adecoagro time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Adecoagro odds to be computed.

Adecoagro Target Price Odds to finish over 7.54

The tendency of Adecoagro Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 7.54 90 days 7.54 
about 97.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Adecoagro to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 97.0 (This Adecoagro SA probability density function shows the probability of Adecoagro Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Adecoagro has a beta of 0.6. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Adecoagro average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Adecoagro SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Adecoagro SA is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Adecoagro Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Adecoagro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adecoagro SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adecoagro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Adecoagro in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
4.747.5110.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
5.948.7111.48
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
4.877.6510.42
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
11.5012.3313.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Adecoagro. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Adecoagro's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Adecoagro's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Adecoagro SA.

Adecoagro Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Adecoagro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Adecoagro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Adecoagro SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Adecoagro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.23
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.60
σ
Overall volatility
0.36
Ir
Information ratio -0.09

Adecoagro Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Adecoagro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Adecoagro SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Adecoagro SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Adecoagro SA has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 17th of November 2022 Adecoagro paid $ 0.1602 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: At US7.76, Is It Time To Put Adecoagro S.A. On Your Watch List - Simply Wall St

Adecoagro Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Adecoagro Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Adecoagro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Adecoagro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding111096772.00
Cash And Short Term Investments199766000.00

Adecoagro Technical Analysis

Adecoagro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Adecoagro Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Adecoagro SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Adecoagro Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Adecoagro Predictive Forecast Models

Adecoagro time-series forecasting models is one of many Adecoagro's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Adecoagro's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Adecoagro SA

Checking the ongoing alerts about Adecoagro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Adecoagro SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Adecoagro SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Adecoagro SA has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 17th of November 2022 Adecoagro paid $ 0.1602 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: At US7.76, Is It Time To Put Adecoagro S.A. On Your Watch List - Simply Wall St
Please continue to Adecoagro Backtesting, Adecoagro Valuation, Adecoagro Correlation, Adecoagro Hype Analysis, Adecoagro Volatility, Adecoagro History as well as Adecoagro Performance. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Adecoagro SA price analysis, check to measure Adecoagro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Adecoagro is operating at the current time. Most of Adecoagro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Adecoagro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Adecoagro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Adecoagro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Adecoagro's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adecoagro. If investors know Adecoagro will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adecoagro listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.35) 
Market Capitalization
855.9 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.186
Return On Assets
0.0477
Return On Equity
0.1523
The market value of Adecoagro SA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adecoagro that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adecoagro's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adecoagro's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adecoagro's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adecoagro's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adecoagro's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Adecoagro value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adecoagro's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.