GLOBAL Mutual Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 9.18

AGBGX
 Fund
  

USD 9.03  0.01  0.11%   

GLOBAL BOND's future price is the expected price of GLOBAL BOND instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of GLOBAL BOND FUND performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Please continue to GLOBAL BOND Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, GLOBAL BOND Correlation, GLOBAL BOND Hype Analysis, GLOBAL BOND Volatility, GLOBAL BOND History as well as GLOBAL BOND Performance. Please specify GLOBAL BOND time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like GLOBAL BOND odds to be computed.

GLOBAL BOND Target Price Odds to finish over 9.18

The tendency of GLOBAL Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 9.18  or more in 90 days
 9.03 90 days 9.18 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GLOBAL BOND to move over $ 9.18  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This GLOBAL BOND FUND probability density function shows the probability of GLOBAL Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GLOBAL BOND FUND price to stay between its current price of $ 9.03  and $ 9.18  at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.04 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon GLOBAL BOND has a beta of 0.14. This suggests as returns on the market go up, GLOBAL BOND average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding GLOBAL BOND FUND will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. GLOBAL BOND FUND is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   GLOBAL BOND Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for GLOBAL BOND

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GLOBAL BOND FUND. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of GLOBAL BOND's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of GLOBAL BOND in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
8.589.039.48
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.538.989.43
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as GLOBAL BOND. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against GLOBAL BOND's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, GLOBAL BOND's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in GLOBAL BOND FUND.

GLOBAL BOND Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GLOBAL BOND is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GLOBAL BOND's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GLOBAL BOND FUND, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GLOBAL BOND within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.03
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.14
σ
Overall volatility
0.14
Ir
Information ratio -0.25

GLOBAL BOND Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GLOBAL BOND for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GLOBAL BOND FUND can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
GLOBAL BOND FUND is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund holds about 5.68% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash

GLOBAL BOND Technical Analysis

GLOBAL BOND's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GLOBAL Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GLOBAL BOND FUND. In general, you should focus on analyzing GLOBAL Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

GLOBAL BOND Predictive Forecast Models

GLOBAL BOND time-series forecasting models is one of many GLOBAL BOND's mutual fund analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary GLOBAL BOND's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about GLOBAL BOND FUND

Checking the ongoing alerts about GLOBAL BOND for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GLOBAL BOND FUND help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
GLOBAL BOND FUND is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund holds about 5.68% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash
Please continue to GLOBAL BOND Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, GLOBAL BOND Correlation, GLOBAL BOND Hype Analysis, GLOBAL BOND Volatility, GLOBAL BOND History as well as GLOBAL BOND Performance. Note that the GLOBAL BOND FUND information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other GLOBAL BOND's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

Complementary Tools for GLOBAL Mutual Fund analysis

When running GLOBAL BOND FUND price analysis, check to measure GLOBAL BOND's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GLOBAL BOND is operating at the current time. Most of GLOBAL BOND's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GLOBAL BOND's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GLOBAL BOND's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GLOBAL BOND to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between GLOBAL BOND's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine GLOBAL BOND value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GLOBAL BOND's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.