Acacia Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.83

ACTG
 Stock
  

USD 3.83  0.02  0.52%   

Acacia Research's future price is the expected price of Acacia Research instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Acacia Research performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 0.91. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 2.17.
  
Acacia Research's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Acacia Research. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Acacia Research based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Acacia Research over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on Acacia Research's common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-30 at 09:34:51 for $1.54 and, as of today, has 9 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.3, and an ask price of $1.6. The implied volatility as of the 7th of December is 264.4808. View All Acacia options

Closest to current price Acacia long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Acacia Research Backtesting, Acacia Research Valuation, Acacia Research Correlation, Acacia Research Hype Analysis, Acacia Research Volatility, Acacia Research History as well as Acacia Research Performance. Please specify Acacia Research time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Acacia Research odds to be computed.

Acacia Research Target Price Odds to finish over 3.83

The tendency of Acacia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 3.83 90 days 3.83 
about 85.6
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Acacia Research to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 85.6 (This Acacia Research probability density function shows the probability of Acacia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Acacia Research has a beta of 0.63. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Acacia Research average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Acacia Research will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Acacia Research is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Acacia Research Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Acacia Research

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Acacia Research. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Acacia Research's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Acacia Research in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
2.033.835.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
2.093.895.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Acacia Research. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Acacia Research's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Acacia Research's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Acacia Research.

Acacia Research Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Acacia Research is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Acacia Research's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Acacia Research, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Acacia Research within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.19
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.63
σ
Overall volatility
0.16
Ir
Information ratio -0.12

Acacia Research Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Acacia Research for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Acacia Research can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Acacia Research generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Acacia Research has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 62.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Walmart Cyber Monday The Echelon Connect Sport-S indoor cycling bike is 502 off - CBS News

Acacia Research Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Acacia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Acacia Research's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Acacia Research's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding98470870.00
Cash And Short Term Investments707471000.00

Acacia Research Technical Analysis

Acacia Research's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Acacia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Acacia Research. In general, you should focus on analyzing Acacia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Acacia Research Predictive Forecast Models

Acacia Research time-series forecasting models is one of many Acacia Research's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Acacia Research's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Acacia Research

Checking the ongoing alerts about Acacia Research for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Acacia Research help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Acacia Research generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Acacia Research has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
About 62.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Walmart Cyber Monday The Echelon Connect Sport-S indoor cycling bike is 502 off - CBS News
Please continue to Acacia Research Backtesting, Acacia Research Valuation, Acacia Research Correlation, Acacia Research Hype Analysis, Acacia Research Volatility, Acacia Research History as well as Acacia Research Performance. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

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When running Acacia Research price analysis, check to measure Acacia Research's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Acacia Research is operating at the current time. Most of Acacia Research's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Acacia Research's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Acacia Research's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Acacia Research to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Acacia Research's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Acacia Research. If investors know Acacia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Acacia Research listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.97) 
Market Capitalization
173.3 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
9.037
Return On Assets
0.0063
Return On Equity
0.3651
The market value of Acacia Research is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Acacia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Acacia Research's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Acacia Research's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Acacia Research's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Acacia Research's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Acacia Research's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Acacia Research value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Acacia Research's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.