Axcelis Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 79.38

ACLS
 Stock
  

USD 79.38  0.31  0.39%   

Axcelis Tech's future price is the expected price of Axcelis Tech instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Axcelis Tech performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Axcelis Tech Price to Book Value is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Axcelis Tech reported last year Price to Book Value of 4.61. As of 11/27/2022, Price to Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 4.08, while Price to Earnings Ratio are likely to drop 21.28.
  
Axcelis Tech's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Axcelis Tech. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Axcelis Tech based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Axcelis Tech over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $80.0 is a CALL option contract on Axcelis Tech's common stock with a strick price of 80.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-23 at 13:13:46 for $3.61 and, as of today, has 19 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.4, and an ask price of $3.7. The implied volatility as of the 27th of November is 50.7671. View All Axcelis options

Closest to current price Axcelis long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Axcelis Tech Backtesting, Axcelis Tech Valuation, Axcelis Tech Correlation, Axcelis Tech Hype Analysis, Axcelis Tech Volatility, Axcelis Tech History as well as Axcelis Tech Performance. Please specify Axcelis Tech time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Axcelis Tech odds to be computed.

Axcelis Tech Target Price Odds to finish over 79.38

The tendency of Axcelis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 79.38 90 days 79.38 
roughly 2.95
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Axcelis Tech to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 2.95 (This Axcelis Tech probability density function shows the probability of Axcelis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.85 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Axcelis Tech will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.0942, implying that it can generate a 0.0942 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Axcelis Tech Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Axcelis Tech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Axcelis Tech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axcelis Tech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Axcelis Tech in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
75.9979.3882.77
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
67.7171.1087.32
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
65.0077.2087.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.672.672.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Axcelis Tech. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Axcelis Tech's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Axcelis Tech's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Axcelis Tech.

Axcelis Tech Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Axcelis Tech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Axcelis Tech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Axcelis Tech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Axcelis Tech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.09
β
Beta against DOW1.85
σ
Overall volatility
8.01
Ir
Information ratio 0.036631

Axcelis Tech Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Axcelis Tech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Axcelis Tech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Axcelis Tech has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Axcelis Tech is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Sale by St Dennis Thomas of 3000 shares of Axcelis Tech

Axcelis Tech Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Axcelis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Axcelis Tech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Axcelis Tech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out4.21%
Short Percent Of Float5.07%
Float Shares32.42M
Shares Short Prior Month1.1M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day340.99k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month396.88k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022

Axcelis Tech Technical Analysis

Axcelis Tech's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Axcelis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Axcelis Tech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Axcelis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Axcelis Tech Predictive Forecast Models

Axcelis Tech time-series forecasting models is one of many Axcelis Tech's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Axcelis Tech's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Axcelis Tech

Checking the ongoing alerts about Axcelis Tech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Axcelis Tech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Axcelis Tech has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Axcelis Tech is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Sale by St Dennis Thomas of 3000 shares of Axcelis Tech
Please continue to Axcelis Tech Backtesting, Axcelis Tech Valuation, Axcelis Tech Correlation, Axcelis Tech Hype Analysis, Axcelis Tech Volatility, Axcelis Tech History as well as Axcelis Tech Performance. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

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When running Axcelis Tech price analysis, check to measure Axcelis Tech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Axcelis Tech is operating at the current time. Most of Axcelis Tech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Axcelis Tech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Axcelis Tech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Axcelis Tech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Axcelis Tech's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Axcelis Tech. If investors know Axcelis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Axcelis Tech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.49
Market Capitalization
2.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.3
Return On Assets
0.16
Return On Equity
0.29
The market value of Axcelis Tech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Axcelis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Axcelis Tech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Axcelis Tech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Axcelis Tech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Axcelis Tech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Axcelis Tech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Axcelis Tech value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Axcelis Tech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.