Absolute Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.15

ABST
 Stock
  

USD 10.15  0.05  0.49%   

Absolute Software's future price is the expected price of Absolute Software instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Absolute Software Cp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Absolute Software's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Absolute Software Cp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Absolute Software based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Absolute Software Cp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $10.0 is a CALL option contract on Absolute Software's common stock with a strick price of 10.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-11-23 at 11:09:53 for $0.45 and, as of today, has 20 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.35, and an ask price of $0.8. The implied volatility as of the 26th of November is 52.3741. View All Absolute options

Closest to current price Absolute long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Absolute Software Backtesting, Absolute Software Valuation, Absolute Software Correlation, Absolute Software Hype Analysis, Absolute Software Volatility, Absolute Software History as well as Absolute Software Performance. Please specify Absolute Software time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Absolute Software odds to be computed.

Absolute Software Target Price Odds to finish over 10.15

The tendency of Absolute Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 10.15 90 days 10.15 
about 81.37
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Absolute Software to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 81.37 (This Absolute Software Cp probability density function shows the probability of Absolute Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.26 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Absolute Software will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Absolute Software is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Absolute Software Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Absolute Software

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Absolute Software. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Absolute Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Absolute Software in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
6.6310.2013.77
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.8712.4416.01
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
7.2410.8114.39
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
15.0019.1022.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Absolute Software. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Absolute Software's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Absolute Software's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Absolute Software.

Absolute Software Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Absolute Software is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Absolute Software's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Absolute Software Cp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Absolute Software within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.3
β
Beta against DOW1.26
σ
Overall volatility
0.83
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Absolute Software Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Absolute Software for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Absolute Software can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Absolute Software generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Absolute Software has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Absolute Software has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company currently holds 277.14 M in liabilities. Absolute Software has a current ratio of 0.76, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Absolute Software until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Absolute Software's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Absolute Software sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Absolute to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Absolute Software's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 197.31 M. Net Loss for the year was (24.48 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 160.54 M.
About 73.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 25th of November 2022 Absolute Software paid $ 0.058 per share dividend to its current shareholders
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Absolute Software Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Absolute Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Absolute Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Absolute Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.21%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.26
Float Shares34.61M
Shares Short Prior Month1.19M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day252.55k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month127.3k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.78%

Absolute Software Technical Analysis

Absolute Software's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Absolute Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Absolute Software Cp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Absolute Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Absolute Software Predictive Forecast Models

Absolute Software time-series forecasting models is one of many Absolute Software's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Absolute Software's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Absolute Software

Checking the ongoing alerts about Absolute Software for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Absolute Software help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Absolute Software generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Absolute Software has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Absolute Software has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
The company currently holds 277.14 M in liabilities. Absolute Software has a current ratio of 0.76, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Absolute Software until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Absolute Software's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Absolute Software sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Absolute to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Absolute Software's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 197.31 M. Net Loss for the year was (24.48 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 160.54 M.
About 73.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 25th of November 2022 Absolute Software paid $ 0.058 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Huge Newegg Black Friday CPU cooler deals Save up to a whopping 36 percent on AIO and fans - Windows Central
Please continue to Absolute Software Backtesting, Absolute Software Valuation, Absolute Software Correlation, Absolute Software Hype Analysis, Absolute Software Volatility, Absolute Software History as well as Absolute Software Performance. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

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When running Absolute Software price analysis, check to measure Absolute Software's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Absolute Software is operating at the current time. Most of Absolute Software's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Absolute Software's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Absolute Software's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Absolute Software to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Absolute Software's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Absolute Software. If investors know Absolute will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Absolute Software listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.20) 
Market Capitalization
531.8 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.22
Return On Assets
(0.0006) 
Return On Equity
(4.00) 
The market value of Absolute Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Absolute that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Absolute Software's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Absolute Software's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Absolute Software's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Absolute Software's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Absolute Software's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Absolute Software value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Absolute Software's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.