Arbor Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.28

ABR
 Stock
  

USD 14.77  0.04  0.27%   

Arbor Realty's future price is the expected price of Arbor Realty instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Arbor Realty Trust performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. As of 12/03/2022, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 8.73, while Price to Book Value is likely to drop 1.05.
  
Arbor Realty's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Arbor Realty Trust. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Arbor Realty based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Arbor Realty Trust over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $15.0 is a CALL option contract on Arbor Realty's common stock with a strick price of 15.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-02 at 14:54:45 for $0.2 and, as of today, has 13 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.2, and an ask price of $0.25. The implied volatility as of the 3rd of December is 27.9698. View All Arbor options

Closest to current price Arbor long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Arbor Realty Backtesting, Arbor Realty Valuation, Arbor Realty Correlation, Arbor Realty Hype Analysis, Arbor Realty Volatility, Arbor Realty History as well as Arbor Realty Performance. Please specify Arbor Realty time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Arbor Realty odds to be computed.

Arbor Realty Target Price Odds to finish over 13.28

The tendency of Arbor Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 13.28  in 90 days
 14.77 90 days 13.28 
about 53.01
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arbor Realty to stay above $ 13.28  in 90 days from now is about 53.01 (This Arbor Realty Trust probability density function shows the probability of Arbor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Arbor Realty Trust price to stay between $ 13.28  and its current price of $14.77 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.04 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.45 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Arbor Realty will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Arbor Realty Trust is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Arbor Realty Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Arbor Realty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arbor Realty Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arbor Realty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Arbor Realty in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.9614.8217.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.3918.0020.86
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
20.0022.3324.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.771.771.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Arbor Realty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Arbor Realty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Arbor Realty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Arbor Realty Trust.

Arbor Realty Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arbor Realty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arbor Realty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arbor Realty Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arbor Realty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.09
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.45
σ
Overall volatility
1.19
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

Arbor Realty Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arbor Realty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arbor Realty Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Arbor Realty Trust has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
On 30th of November 2022 Arbor Realty paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: 7 Top-Tier Dividend Stocks to Buy for 2023 - Nasdaq

Arbor Realty Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arbor Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arbor Realty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arbor Realty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding133969296.00
Cash And Short Term Investments12385628000.00

Arbor Realty Technical Analysis

Arbor Realty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arbor Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arbor Realty Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arbor Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Arbor Realty Predictive Forecast Models

Arbor Realty time-series forecasting models is one of many Arbor Realty's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Arbor Realty's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Arbor Realty Trust

Checking the ongoing alerts about Arbor Realty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arbor Realty Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Arbor Realty Trust has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
On 30th of November 2022 Arbor Realty paid $ 0.4 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: 7 Top-Tier Dividend Stocks to Buy for 2023 - Nasdaq
Please continue to Arbor Realty Backtesting, Arbor Realty Valuation, Arbor Realty Correlation, Arbor Realty Hype Analysis, Arbor Realty Volatility, Arbor Realty History as well as Arbor Realty Performance. Note that the Arbor Realty Trust information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arbor Realty's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

Complementary Tools for Arbor Stock analysis

When running Arbor Realty Trust price analysis, check to measure Arbor Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arbor Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Arbor Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arbor Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arbor Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arbor Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Probability Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Go
Performance Analysis
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Go
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Go
Is Arbor Realty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arbor Realty. If investors know Arbor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arbor Realty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.28) 
Market Capitalization
2.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.05) 
Return On Assets
0.025
Return On Equity
15.79
The market value of Arbor Realty Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arbor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arbor Realty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arbor Realty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arbor Realty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arbor Realty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arbor Realty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Arbor Realty value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arbor Realty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.