Acumen Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.82

ABOS
 Stock
  

USD 5.82  0.22  3.93%   

Acumen Pharmaceuticals' future price is the expected price of Acumen Pharmaceuticals instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Acumen Pharmaceuticals performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Acumen Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Acumen Pharmaceuticals. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Acumen Pharmaceuticals based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Acumen Pharmaceuticals over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-16 CALL at $5.0 is a CALL option contract on Acumen Pharmaceuticals' common stock with a strick price of 5.0 expiring on 2022-12-16. The contract was not traded in recent days and, as of today, has 12 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.65, and an ask price of $1.0. The implied volatility as of the 4th of December is 115.5118. View All Acumen options

Closest to current price Acumen long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Acumen Pharmaceuticals Backtesting, Acumen Pharmaceuticals Valuation, Acumen Pharmaceuticals Correlation, Acumen Pharmaceuticals Hype Analysis, Acumen Pharmaceuticals Volatility, Acumen Pharmaceuticals History as well as Acumen Pharmaceuticals Performance. Please specify Acumen Pharmaceuticals time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Acumen Pharmaceuticals odds to be computed.

Acumen Pharmaceuticals Target Price Odds to finish over 5.82

The tendency of Acumen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 5.82 90 days 5.82 
about 76.78
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Acumen Pharmaceuticals to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 76.78 (This Acumen Pharmaceuticals probability density function shows the probability of Acumen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.13 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Acumen Pharmaceuticals will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.368, implying that it can generate a 0.37 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Acumen Pharmaceuticals Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Acumen Pharmaceuticals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Acumen Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Acumen Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Acumen Pharmaceuticals in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.295.8219.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.5110.1424.01
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
16.0023.3327.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-3.77-3.13-2.49
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Acumen Pharmaceuticals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Acumen Pharmaceuticals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Acumen Pharmaceuticals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Acumen Pharmaceuticals.

Acumen Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Acumen Pharmaceuticals is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Acumen Pharmaceuticals' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Acumen Pharmaceuticals, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Acumen Pharmaceuticals within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.37
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.13
σ
Overall volatility
1.49
Ir
Information ratio 0.034767

Acumen Pharmaceuticals Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Acumen Pharmaceuticals for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Acumen Pharmaceuticals can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Acumen Pharmaceuticals has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Net Loss for the year was (100.61 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (12.3 M).
Acumen Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 189.91 M in cash with (17.96 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.69.
Over 77.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

Acumen Pharmaceuticals Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Acumen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Acumen Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Acumen Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding28651796.00
Cash And Short Term Investments194237000.00

Acumen Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Acumen Pharmaceuticals' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Acumen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Acumen Pharmaceuticals. In general, you should focus on analyzing Acumen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Acumen Pharmaceuticals Predictive Forecast Models

Acumen Pharmaceuticals time-series forecasting models is one of many Acumen Pharmaceuticals' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Acumen Pharmaceuticals' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Acumen Pharmaceuticals

Checking the ongoing alerts about Acumen Pharmaceuticals for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Acumen Pharmaceuticals help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Acumen Pharmaceuticals has very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
Net Loss for the year was (100.61 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (12.3 M).
Acumen Pharmaceuticals currently holds about 189.91 M in cash with (17.96 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.69.
Over 77.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies

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When running Acumen Pharmaceuticals price analysis, check to measure Acumen Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Acumen Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Acumen Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Acumen Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Acumen Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Acumen Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Acumen Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Acumen Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Acumen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Acumen Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
229.2 M
Return On Assets
(0.11) 
Return On Equity
(0.18) 
The market value of Acumen Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Acumen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Acumen Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Acumen Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Acumen Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Acumen Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Acumen Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Acumen Pharmaceuticals value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Acumen Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.