AmerisourceBergen Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 136.03

ABC
 Stock
  

USD 170.46  0.17  0.1%   

AmerisourceBergen's future price is the expected price of AmerisourceBergen instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of AmerisourceBergen performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. The current year Price to Book Value is expected to grow to 137.88. The current year Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to grow to 15.51.
  
AmerisourceBergen's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on AmerisourceBergen. Implied volatility approximates the future value of AmerisourceBergen based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in AmerisourceBergen over a specific time period. For example, 2022-12-09 CALL at $170.0 is a CALL option contract on AmerisourceBergen's common stock with a strick price of 170.0 expiring on 2022-12-09. The contract was last traded on 2022-12-08 at 15:55:29 for $1.2 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.65, and an ask price of $3.7. The implied volatility as of the 9th of December is 26.7849. View All AmerisourceBergen options

Closest to current price AmerisourceBergen long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to AmerisourceBergen Backtesting, AmerisourceBergen Valuation, AmerisourceBergen Correlation, AmerisourceBergen Hype Analysis, AmerisourceBergen Volatility, AmerisourceBergen History as well as AmerisourceBergen Performance. Please specify AmerisourceBergen time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like AmerisourceBergen odds to be computed.

AmerisourceBergen Target Price Odds to finish below 136.03

The tendency of AmerisourceBergen Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 136.03  or more in 90 days
 170.46 90 days 136.03 
about 10.33
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AmerisourceBergen to drop to $ 136.03  or more in 90 days from now is about 10.33 (This AmerisourceBergen probability density function shows the probability of AmerisourceBergen Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AmerisourceBergen price to stay between $ 136.03  and its current price of $170.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.89 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon AmerisourceBergen has a beta of 0.59. This suggests as returns on the market go up, AmerisourceBergen average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AmerisourceBergen will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1889, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   AmerisourceBergen Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for AmerisourceBergen

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AmerisourceBergen. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AmerisourceBergen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AmerisourceBergen in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
168.91170.48172.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
165.84167.41187.51
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
173.89175.46177.03
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
114.00143.11161.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AmerisourceBergen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AmerisourceBergen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AmerisourceBergen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AmerisourceBergen.

AmerisourceBergen Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AmerisourceBergen is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AmerisourceBergen's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AmerisourceBergen, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AmerisourceBergen within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.19
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.59
σ
Overall volatility
11.74
Ir
Information ratio 0.11

AmerisourceBergen Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AmerisourceBergen for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AmerisourceBergen can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 4.63 B in debt. AmerisourceBergen has a current ratio of 0.89, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist AmerisourceBergen until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, AmerisourceBergen's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like AmerisourceBergen sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for AmerisourceBergen to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about AmerisourceBergen's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
AmerisourceBergen has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 28th of November 2022 AmerisourceBergen paid $ 0.485 per share dividend to its current shareholders

AmerisourceBergen Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AmerisourceBergen Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AmerisourceBergen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AmerisourceBergen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding211210000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments3388189000.00

AmerisourceBergen Technical Analysis

AmerisourceBergen's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AmerisourceBergen Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AmerisourceBergen. In general, you should focus on analyzing AmerisourceBergen Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

AmerisourceBergen Predictive Forecast Models

AmerisourceBergen time-series forecasting models is one of many AmerisourceBergen's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary AmerisourceBergen's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about AmerisourceBergen

Checking the ongoing alerts about AmerisourceBergen for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AmerisourceBergen help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 4.63 B in debt. AmerisourceBergen has a current ratio of 0.89, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist AmerisourceBergen until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, AmerisourceBergen's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like AmerisourceBergen sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for AmerisourceBergen to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about AmerisourceBergen's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
AmerisourceBergen has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 28th of November 2022 AmerisourceBergen paid $ 0.485 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Please continue to AmerisourceBergen Backtesting, AmerisourceBergen Valuation, AmerisourceBergen Correlation, AmerisourceBergen Hype Analysis, AmerisourceBergen Volatility, AmerisourceBergen History as well as AmerisourceBergen Performance. Note that the AmerisourceBergen information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AmerisourceBergen's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Complementary Tools for AmerisourceBergen Stock analysis

When running AmerisourceBergen price analysis, check to measure AmerisourceBergen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AmerisourceBergen is operating at the current time. Most of AmerisourceBergen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AmerisourceBergen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AmerisourceBergen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AmerisourceBergen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AmerisourceBergen's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AmerisourceBergen. If investors know AmerisourceBergen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AmerisourceBergen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.32) 
Market Capitalization
34.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.038
Return On Assets
0.0306
Return On Equity
0.5083
The market value of AmerisourceBergen is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AmerisourceBergen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AmerisourceBergen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AmerisourceBergen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AmerisourceBergen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AmerisourceBergen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AmerisourceBergen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AmerisourceBergen value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AmerisourceBergen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.