Advance Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 182.35

AAP
 Stock
  

USD 173.09  3.63  2.05%   

Advance Auto's future price is the expected price of Advance Auto instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Advance Auto Parts performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Advance Auto Price to Earnings Ratio are very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Advance Auto reported last year Price to Earnings Ratio of 24.94. As of 1st of July 2022, Price to Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 1.42, while Price to Book Value is likely to drop 4.76.
  
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Advance Auto's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Advance Auto Parts. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Advance Auto based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Advance Auto Parts over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-15 CALL at $175.0 is a CALL option contract on Advance Auto's common stock with a strick price of 175.0 expiring on 2022-07-15. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-30 at 15:59:55 for $4.2 and, as of today, has 14 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.5, and an ask price of $4.7. The implied volatility as of the 1st of July is 36.6069. View All Advance options

Closest to current price Advance long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Advance Auto Backtesting, Advance Auto Valuation, Advance Auto Correlation, Advance Auto Hype Analysis, Advance Auto Volatility, Advance Auto History as well as Advance Auto Performance. Please specify Advance Auto time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Advance Auto odds to be computed.
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Advance Auto Target Price Odds to finish over 182.35

The tendency of Advance Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 182.35  or more in 90 days
 173.09 90 days 182.35  about 81.04
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Advance Auto to move over $ 182.35  or more in 90 days from now is about 81.04 (This Advance Auto Parts probability density function shows the probability of Advance Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Advance Auto Parts price to stay between its current price of $ 173.09  and $ 182.35  at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.09 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.08 . This suggests Advance Auto Parts market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Advance Auto is expected to follow. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Advance Auto Parts is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Advance Auto Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Advance Auto

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advance Auto Parts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advance Auto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Advance Auto in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
172.21174.80177.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
155.78206.64209.23
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
179.76182.35184.94
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
175.00255.77290.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advance Auto. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advance Auto's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advance Auto's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Advance Auto Parts.

Advance Auto Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Advance Auto is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Advance Auto's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Advance Auto Parts, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Advance Auto within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.05
β
Beta against DOW1.08
σ
Overall volatility
17.32
Ir
Information ratio -0.03

Advance Auto Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Advance Auto for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Advance Auto Parts can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Advance Auto Parts generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Advance Auto Parts has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from economictimes.indiatimes.com: Advance Auto inaugurates global capability centre in Hyderabad - Economic Times

Advance Auto Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Advance Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Advance Auto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advance Auto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out6.07%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.50
Short Percent Of Float6.84%
Float Shares60.36M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day893.95k
Shares Short Prior Month3.42M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month847.96k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.40%

Advance Auto Technical Analysis

Advance Auto's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Advance Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Advance Auto Parts. In general, you should focus on analyzing Advance Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Advance Auto Predictive Forecast Models

Advance Auto time-series forecasting models is one of many Advance Auto's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Advance Auto's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Advance Auto Parts

Checking the ongoing alerts about Advance Auto for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Advance Auto Parts help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Advance Auto Alerts

Advance Auto Alerts and Suggestions

Advance Auto Parts generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Advance Auto Parts has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from economictimes.indiatimes.com: Advance Auto inaugurates global capability centre in Hyderabad - Economic Times
Please continue to Advance Auto Backtesting, Advance Auto Valuation, Advance Auto Correlation, Advance Auto Hype Analysis, Advance Auto Volatility, Advance Auto History as well as Advance Auto Performance. Note that the Advance Auto Parts information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Advance Auto's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Complementary Tools for Advance Stock analysis

When running Advance Auto Parts price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Advance Auto's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advance Auto. If investors know Advance will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advance Auto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.2
Market Capitalization
10.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.013
Return On Assets
0.0434
Return On Equity
0.18
The market value of Advance Auto Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advance that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advance Auto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advance Auto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advance Auto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advance Auto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advance Auto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Advance Auto value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advance Auto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.