Aaon Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 54.72

AAON
 Stock
  

USD 54.72  0.65  1.20%   

Aaon's future price is the expected price of Aaon instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Aaon Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Aaon's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Aaon Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Aaon based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Aaon Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2022-10-21 CALL at $55.0 is a CALL option contract on Aaon's common stock with a strick price of 55.0 expiring on 2022-10-21. The contract was last traded on 2022-03-14 at 00:07:58 for $5.53 and, as of today, has 25 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.25, and an ask price of $4.8. The implied volatility as of the 27th of September is 49.719. View All Aaon options

Closest to current price Aaon long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Aaon Backtesting, Aaon Valuation, Aaon Correlation, Aaon Hype Analysis, Aaon Volatility, Aaon History as well as Aaon Performance. Please specify Aaon time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Aaon odds to be computed.

Aaon Target Price Odds to finish over 54.72

The tendency of Aaon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 54.72 90 days 54.72 
about 81.54
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aaon to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 81.54 (This Aaon Inc probability density function shows the probability of Aaon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.23 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Aaon will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1631, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Aaon Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Aaon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aaon Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aaon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Aaon in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
52.6454.7656.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
49.2563.7065.82
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
52.5054.6256.74
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
70.0070.0070.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aaon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aaon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aaon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Aaon Inc.

Aaon Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aaon is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aaon's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aaon Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aaon within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
0.16
β
Beta against DOW1.23
σ
Overall volatility
3.14
Ir
Information ratio 0.07

Aaon Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aaon for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aaon Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aaon Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 73.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from simplywall.st: The total return for AAON investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last five years - Simply Wall St

Aaon Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aaon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aaon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aaon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.91%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.38
Short Percent Of Float2.72%
Float Shares42.08M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day157.24k
Shares Short Prior Month1.01M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month143.63k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.66%

Aaon Technical Analysis

Aaon's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aaon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aaon Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aaon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Aaon Predictive Forecast Models

Aaon time-series forecasting models is one of many Aaon's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Aaon's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Aaon Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Aaon for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aaon Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Aaon Alerts

Aaon Alerts and Suggestions

Aaon Inc is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 73.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from simplywall.st: The total return for AAON investors has risen faster than earnings growth over the last five years - Simply Wall St
Please continue to Aaon Backtesting, Aaon Valuation, Aaon Correlation, Aaon Hype Analysis, Aaon Volatility, Aaon History as well as Aaon Performance. You can also try Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Aaon Inc price analysis, check to measure Aaon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aaon is operating at the current time. Most of Aaon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aaon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aaon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aaon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aaon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aaon. If investors know Aaon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aaon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Aaon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aaon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aaon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aaon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aaon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aaon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aaon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aaon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aaon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.