Aarons Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 14.75

AAN
 Stock
  

USD 14.75  0.20  1.37%   

Aarons Holdings' future price is the expected price of Aarons Holdings instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Aarons Holdings performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Price to Book Value is expected to rise to 1.14 this year. Price to Earnings Ratio is expected to rise to 7.99 this year.
  
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Aarons Holdings' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Aarons Holdings. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Aarons Holdings based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Aarons Holdings over a specific time period. For example, 2022-07-15 CALL at $15.0 is a CALL option contract on Aarons Holdings' common stock with a strick price of 15.0 expiring on 2022-07-15. The contract was last traded on 2022-06-29 at 09:49:43 for $0.54 and, as of today, has 13 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.5, and an ask price of $1.4. The implied volatility as of the 2nd of July is 92.5853. View All Aarons options

Closest to current price Aarons long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Aarons Holdings Backtesting, Aarons Holdings Valuation, Aarons Holdings Correlation, Aarons Holdings Hype Analysis, Aarons Holdings Volatility, Aarons Holdings History as well as Aarons Holdings Performance. Please specify Aarons Holdings time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Aarons Holdings odds to be computed.
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Aarons Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 14.75

The tendency of Aarons Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 14.75 90 days 14.75  about 98.0
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aarons Holdings to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Aarons Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Aarons Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.17 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Aarons Holdings will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Aarons Holdings is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Aarons Holdings Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Aarons Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aarons Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aarons Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Aarons Holdings in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.3414.3017.26
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.2818.4621.42
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
11.7314.6917.65
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
27.0031.8037.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aarons Holdings. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aarons Holdings' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aarons Holdings' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Aarons Holdings.

Aarons Holdings Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aarons Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aarons Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aarons Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aarons Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.34
β
Beta against DOW1.17
σ
Overall volatility
2.06
Ir
Information ratio -0.12

Aarons Holdings Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aarons Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aarons Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Aarons Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Aarons Holdings was previously known as AARONS COMPANY INC and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol AAN.
Aarons Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from www.orlandoweekly.com: Orlando Museum of Art Director Aaron De Groft ousted after FBI raids museum seeking possibly fake Basquiat paintings - Orlando Weekly

Aarons Holdings Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aarons Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aarons Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aarons Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out6.32%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.30
Short Percent Of Float9.15%
Float Shares30.26M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day425.41k
Shares Short Prior Month1.62M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month285.48k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.03%

Aarons Holdings Technical Analysis

Aarons Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aarons Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aarons Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aarons Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Aarons Holdings Predictive Forecast Models

Aarons Holdings time-series forecasting models is one of many Aarons Holdings' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Aarons Holdings' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Aarons Holdings

Checking the ongoing alerts about Aarons Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aarons Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Aarons Holdings Alerts

Aarons Holdings Alerts and Suggestions

Aarons Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Aarons Holdings was previously known as AARONS COMPANY INC and was traded on New York Stock Exchange under the symbol AAN.
Aarons Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Latest headline from www.orlandoweekly.com: Orlando Museum of Art Director Aaron De Groft ousted after FBI raids museum seeking possibly fake Basquiat paintings - Orlando Weekly
Please continue to Aarons Holdings Backtesting, Aarons Holdings Valuation, Aarons Holdings Correlation, Aarons Holdings Hype Analysis, Aarons Holdings Volatility, Aarons Holdings History as well as Aarons Holdings Performance. Note that the Aarons Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aarons Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Shere Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Complementary Tools for Aarons Stock analysis

When running Aarons Holdings price analysis, check to measure Aarons Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aarons Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Aarons Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aarons Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aarons Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aarons Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aarons Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aarons Holdings. If investors know Aarons will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aarons Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.35
Market Capitalization
446.8 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
-0.052
Return On Assets
0.0953
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of Aarons Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aarons that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aarons Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aarons Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aarons Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aarons Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aarons Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aarons Holdings value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aarons Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.