Alcoa Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 34.70

AA
 Stock
  

USD 34.70  0.23  0.67%   

Alcoa Corp's future price is the expected price of Alcoa Corp instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Alcoa Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Alcoa Corp's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Alcoa Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Alcoa Corp based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Alcoa Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2022-09-30 CALL at $34.5 is a CALL option contract on Alcoa Corp's common stock with a strick price of 34.5 expiring on 2022-09-30. The contract was last traded on 2022-09-26 at 15:55:58 for $1.29 and, as of today, has 3 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.2, and an ask price of $1.26. The implied volatility as of the 27th of September is 99.649. View All Alcoa options

Closest to current price Alcoa long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Please continue to Alcoa Corp Backtesting, Alcoa Corp Valuation, Alcoa Corp Correlation, Alcoa Corp Hype Analysis, Alcoa Corp Volatility, Alcoa Corp History as well as Alcoa Corp Performance. Please specify Alcoa Corp time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa Corp odds to be computed.

Alcoa Corp Target Price Odds to finish over 34.70

The tendency of Alcoa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 34.70 90 days 34.70 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa Corp to move above the current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Alcoa Corp probability density function shows the probability of Alcoa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.82 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Alcoa Corp will likely underperform. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Alcoa Corp is significantly underperforming DOW.
   Alcoa Corp Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Alcoa Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcoa Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alcoa Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alcoa Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
31.4735.3639.25
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
31.0240.4844.37
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
26.9630.8434.73
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
52.0061.6275.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alcoa Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alcoa Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alcoa Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alcoa Corp.

Alcoa Corp Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alcoa Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alcoa Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alcoa Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alcoa Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.25
β
Beta against DOW1.82
σ
Overall volatility
4.71
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Alcoa Corp Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alcoa Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alcoa Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Alcoa Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Alcoa Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 25th of August 2022 Alcoa Corp paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Declining Stock and Decent Financials Is The Market Wrong About Alcoa Corporation - Simply Wall St

Alcoa Corp Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alcoa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alcoa Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcoa Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out5.19%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.36
Short Percent Of Float5.85%
Float Shares179M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day7.88M
Shares Short Prior Month10.54M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month5.99M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.91%

Alcoa Corp Technical Analysis

Alcoa Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alcoa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alcoa Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alcoa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Alcoa Corp Predictive Forecast Models

Alcoa Corp time-series forecasting models is one of many Alcoa Corp's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Alcoa Corp's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Alcoa Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Alcoa Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alcoa Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Alcoa Corp Alerts

Alcoa Corp Alerts and Suggestions

Alcoa Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Alcoa Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 25th of August 2022 Alcoa Corp paid $ 0.1 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Declining Stock and Decent Financials Is The Market Wrong About Alcoa Corporation - Simply Wall St
Please continue to Alcoa Corp Backtesting, Alcoa Corp Valuation, Alcoa Corp Correlation, Alcoa Corp Hype Analysis, Alcoa Corp Volatility, Alcoa Corp History as well as Alcoa Corp Performance. Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.

Complementary Tools for Alcoa Stock analysis

When running Alcoa Corp price analysis, check to measure Alcoa Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alcoa Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alcoa Corp. If investors know Alcoa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alcoa Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alcoa Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.