COSCO SHIPPING (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.8

601919
  

CNY 12.28  0.15  1.21%   

COSCO SHIPPING's future price is the expected price of COSCO SHIPPING instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Please continue to COSCO SHIPPING Backtesting, COSCO SHIPPING Valuation, COSCO SHIPPING Correlation, COSCO SHIPPING Hype Analysis, COSCO SHIPPING Volatility, COSCO SHIPPING History as well as COSCO SHIPPING Performance. Please specify COSCO SHIPPING time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like COSCO SHIPPING odds to be computed.

COSCO SHIPPING Target Price Odds to finish over 10.8

The tendency of COSCO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above Y 10.80  in 90 days
 12.28 90 days 10.80 
over 95.42
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of COSCO SHIPPING to stay above Y 10.80  in 90 days from now is over 95.42 (This COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS probability density function shows the probability of COSCO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS price to stay between Y 10.80  and its current price of Y12.28 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.8 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon COSCO SHIPPING has a beta of 0.0777. This suggests as returns on the market go up, COSCO SHIPPING average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS is significantly underperforming DOW.
   COSCO SHIPPING Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for COSCO SHIPPING

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of COSCO SHIPPING's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of COSCO SHIPPING in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.4812.2814.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.7011.5013.30
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
10.1811.9813.79
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.8612.1412.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as COSCO SHIPPING. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against COSCO SHIPPING's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, COSCO SHIPPING's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS.

COSCO SHIPPING Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. COSCO SHIPPING is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the COSCO SHIPPING's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of COSCO SHIPPING within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.16
β
Beta against DOW0.08
σ
Overall volatility
0.99
Ir
Information ratio -0.11

COSCO SHIPPING Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of COSCO SHIPPING for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
COSCO SHIPPING generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
COSCO SHIPPING has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
About 59.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

COSCO SHIPPING Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of COSCO Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential COSCO SHIPPING's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. COSCO SHIPPING's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Float Shares7.93B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day89.18M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month105.79M

COSCO SHIPPING Technical Analysis

COSCO SHIPPING's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. COSCO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS. In general, you should focus on analyzing COSCO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

COSCO SHIPPING Predictive Forecast Models

COSCO SHIPPING time-series forecasting models is one of many COSCO SHIPPING's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary COSCO SHIPPING's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS

Checking the ongoing alerts about COSCO SHIPPING for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
COSCO SHIPPING generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
COSCO SHIPPING has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
About 59.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees
Please continue to COSCO SHIPPING Backtesting, COSCO SHIPPING Valuation, COSCO SHIPPING Correlation, COSCO SHIPPING Hype Analysis, COSCO SHIPPING Volatility, COSCO SHIPPING History as well as COSCO SHIPPING Performance. You can also try Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running COSCO SHIPPING HOLDINGS price analysis, check to measure COSCO SHIPPING's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy COSCO SHIPPING is operating at the current time. Most of COSCO SHIPPING's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of COSCO SHIPPING's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move COSCO SHIPPING's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of COSCO SHIPPING to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between COSCO SHIPPING's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine COSCO SHIPPING value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, COSCO SHIPPING's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.