CHONG QING (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 12.13

000625
  

CNY 12.13  0.32  2.71%   

CHONG QING's future price is the expected price of CHONG QING instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CHONG QING CHANGAN performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
Please continue to CHONG QING Backtesting, CHONG QING Valuation, CHONG QING Correlation, CHONG QING Hype Analysis, CHONG QING Volatility, CHONG QING History as well as CHONG QING Performance. Please specify CHONG QING time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like CHONG QING odds to be computed.

CHONG QING Target Price Odds to finish over 12.13

The tendency of CHONG Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 12.13 90 days 12.13 
about 81.46
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CHONG QING to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 81.46 (This CHONG QING CHANGAN probability density function shows the probability of CHONG Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CHONG QING CHANGAN has a beta of -0.27. This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding CHONG QING are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, CHONG QING CHANGAN is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. CHONG QING CHANGAN is significantly underperforming DOW.
   CHONG QING Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for CHONG QING

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CHONG QING CHANGAN. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of CHONG QING's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of CHONG QING in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.4612.1314.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.4711.1413.81
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
9.0611.7314.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.6512.0112.37
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CHONG QING. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CHONG QING's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CHONG QING's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in CHONG QING CHANGAN.

CHONG QING Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CHONG QING is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CHONG QING's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CHONG QING CHANGAN, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CHONG QING within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.57
β
Beta against DOW-0.27
σ
Overall volatility
2.19
Ir
Information ratio -0.22

CHONG QING Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CHONG QING for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CHONG QING CHANGAN can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CHONG QING CHANGAN generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
CHONG QING CHANGAN is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 45.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

CHONG QING Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CHONG Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CHONG QING's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CHONG QING's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.31
Float Shares6.44B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day135.49M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month166.9M
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.54%

CHONG QING Technical Analysis

CHONG QING's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CHONG Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CHONG QING CHANGAN. In general, you should focus on analyzing CHONG Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

CHONG QING Predictive Forecast Models

CHONG QING time-series forecasting models is one of many CHONG QING's stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary CHONG QING's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about CHONG QING CHANGAN

Checking the ongoing alerts about CHONG QING for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CHONG QING CHANGAN help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CHONG QING CHANGAN generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
CHONG QING CHANGAN is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
About 45.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees
Please continue to CHONG QING Backtesting, CHONG QING Valuation, CHONG QING Correlation, CHONG QING Hype Analysis, CHONG QING Volatility, CHONG QING History as well as CHONG QING Performance. Note that the CHONG QING CHANGAN information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CHONG QING's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

Complementary Tools for CHONG Stock analysis

When running CHONG QING CHANGAN price analysis, check to measure CHONG QING's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CHONG QING is operating at the current time. Most of CHONG QING's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CHONG QING's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CHONG QING's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CHONG QING to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between CHONG QING's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine CHONG QING value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CHONG QING's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.