Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Probability of Future Index Price Finishing Over 1

HSI
 Index
  

 21,860  137.10  0.62%   

Hang Seng's future price is the expected price of Hang Seng instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Hang Seng performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility.
  
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Check out Hang Seng Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Hang Seng Correlation, Hang Seng Hype Analysis, Hang Seng Volatility, Hang Seng History as well as Hang Seng Performance. Please specify Hang Seng time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Hang Seng odds to be computed.
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Hang Seng Target Price Odds to finish over 1

The tendency of Hang Seng Index price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  1.00  in 90 days
 21,860 90 days 1.00  close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hang Seng to stay above  1.00  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Hang Seng probability density function shows the probability of Hang Seng Index to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hang Seng price to stay between  1.00  and its current price of 21859.79 at the end of the 90-day period is about 82.8 .
 Hang Seng Price Density 
      Price 

Predictive Modules for Hang Seng

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hang Seng. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hang Seng's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hang Seng in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
21,85821,86021,862
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
20,98420,98524,046
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
22,30922,31122,313
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
21,63422,07322,512
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hang Seng. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hang Seng's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hang Seng's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hang Seng.

Hang Seng Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hang Seng is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hang Seng's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hang Seng, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hang Seng within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.

Hang Seng Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hang Seng for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hang Seng can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Hang Seng generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Hang Seng Technical Analysis

Hang Seng's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hang Seng Index technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hang Seng. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hang Seng Index price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Hang Seng Predictive Forecast Models

Hang Seng time-series forecasting models is one of many Hang Seng's index analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Hang Seng's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Hang Seng

Checking the ongoing alerts about Hang Seng for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hang Seng help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Hang Seng Alerts

Hang Seng Alerts and Suggestions

Hang Seng generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Check out Hang Seng Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Hang Seng Correlation, Hang Seng Hype Analysis, Hang Seng Volatility, Hang Seng History as well as Hang Seng Performance. Note that the Hang Seng information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hang Seng's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

Other Tools for Hang Seng Index

When running Hang Seng price analysis, check to measure Hang Seng's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hang Seng is operating at the current time. Most of Hang Seng's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hang Seng's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hang Seng's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hang Seng to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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